Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.