Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 54.37%. A win for DC United had a probability of 22.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.48%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-0 (6.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.