Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 48.17%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (6.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.