Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 52.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.06% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 23.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.01%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.