Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 57.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.56% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.81%) and 1-0 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%) , while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.