Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 0-1 (7.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.