Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (5.75%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (8.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.