Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 38.73%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 36.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (5.44%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.