Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.45%) and 0-2 (4.98%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 (8.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.