Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for St Louis City had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest St Louis City win was 0-1 (6.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.