Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 44.79%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (7.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.