Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 53.62%. A win for Phoenix Rising had a probability of 23.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Phoenix Rising win was 0-1 (6.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.