Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 (7.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.