World Cup Gameweek 1
Jun 11, 2026 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Mexico City Stadium
  • Julián Quiñones 9' goal
  • Brian Gutiérrez 23' yellowcard
  • Raúl Jiménez 67' goal
  • César Montes  90'+2' redcard
  • yellowcard Teboho Mokoena 17'
  • redcard Yaya Sithole 49'
  • redcard Yaya Sithole 50'
  • yellowcard Nkosinathi Sibisi 74'
  • redcard Themba Zwane 84'

Mexico vs South Africa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

South Africa

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for South Africa had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest South Africa win was 0-1 (10%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result

Mexico 40.23% (-0.07)
Draw 27.78% (-0.04)
South Africa 31.96% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

46.75% (+0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.29% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 31.71% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 42.36% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 57.64% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 21.41% (+0.11)
Under 3.5 78.59% (-0.11)
Over 4.5 11.06% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 88.94% (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Mexico 28.56% (-0.02)
Draw 45.44% (-0.02)
South Africa 26.01% (+0.04)

Team To Score First

Mexico 49.15% (-0.11)
No Goal 9.57% (-0.03)
South Africa 41.28% (+0.14)

Corners

Over 8 37.22%
Equal 8 11.07% (-0.01)
Under 8 51.71% (+0.01)
Over 9 27.63% (+0.01)
Equal 9 9.59% (-0.01)
Under 9 62.78%
Over 10.5 19.92% (+0.02)
Under 10.5 80.08% (-0.02)

Mexico Goals

Over 1.5 34.98% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 65.02% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 12.99% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 87.01% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 3.96% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 96.04% (-0.02)

South Africa Goals

Over 0.5 63.73% (+0.06)
Under 0.5 36.27% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 28.85% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 71.15% (-0.12)
Over 2.5 10.37% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 89.63% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 2.86% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.14% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Mexico 40.23%
Draw 27.78%
South Africa 31.95%
Mexico
1-0 @ 12.1% (-0.05)
2-1 @ 8.37% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 7.5% (-0.04)
3-1 @ 3.35% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.17% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.85% (+0.02)
Other @ 3.89% (+0.02)
Total : 40.23%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.16% (-0.04)
0-0 @ 9.57% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 4.32% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.07% (+0.02)
Total : 27.78%
South Africa
0-1 @ 10% (-0.02)
1-2 @ 7.04% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 5.27% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.68% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 2.37%
2-3 @ 1.8% (+0.02)
Other @ 2.79% (+0.03)
Total : 31.95%

Head to Head

World Cup
Jun 11, 2010 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT FNB Stadium
  • Siphiwe Tshabalala 55' goal
  • goal Rafael Marquez 79'

Build-up

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