Preview: Mexico vs South Africa - prediction, team news, lineups

The 2026 World Cup gets underway on Thursday night when co-hosts Mexico face South Africa in their opening Group A fixture at Estadio Azteca (Mexico City Stadium).

Representing the first of 104 group-stage games in the expanded 48-team era, this fixture serves as a nostalgic flip of the script from 2010, when Rafael Marquez cancelled out Siphiwe Tshabalala’s iconic opening strike in a 1-1 draw in Johannesburg.

Match preview

Mexico have made history before even kicking a ball at this summer’s eagerly-anticipated tournament, as they are the first nation to host the men’s World Cup three times, adding 2026 (with the United States and Canada) to their legendary standalone editions in 1970 and 1986.

Head coach Javier Aguirre is preparing to lead El Tri into his third World Cup across three separate stints at the helm. Appointed in 2024, the 67-year-old has inherited a side desperate to make amends for their dismal Qatar 2022 campaign, in which they failed to reach the knockout rounds for the first time since 1978.

Ranked 14th in the world by FIFA, Mexico bypassed the rigours of CONCACAF qualification as co-hosts. Following their CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup triumphs - winning the latter in July last year - they suffered a post-silverware hangover, failing to win any of their final six friendly matches of 2025 (D4 L2).

However, El Tri's form has improved this year, holding European powerhouses Portugal and Belgium to respectable draws, before putting together a three-match winning streak against Ghana, Australia and Serbia, thrashing the latter 5-1 in Toluca last Friday.

Unbeaten across their last seven opening games at the World Cup dating back to 1994 (W5 D2), Mexico are set to be roared on by a sell-out 83,000 capacity crowd on Thursday. A victory against South Africa will significantly boost their chances of securing top spot in Group A, before they turn their attention to subsequent fixtures against South Korea and Czech Republic.

South Africa have landed in North America for their fourth World Cup appearance, marking their return to the prestigious tournament for the first time since hosting the event 16 years ago. Their arrival ends a lengthy period on the sidelines following three consecutive failed qualification attempts for the 2014, 2018 and 2022 editions.

Bafana Bafana punched their ticket to this summer’s global spectacle following a dramatic conclusion to CAF qualifying. Their 3-0 final-round victory over Rwanda, coupled with Nigeria thrashing group leaders Benin 4-0, helped them to secure top spot with 18 points from 10 matches (W5 D3 L2), despite being docked three points for fielding an ineligible player in their home win over Lesotho.

Managed by Belgian boss Hugo Broos since 2021, South Africa enter the tournament as the 11th highest-ranked African nation and 60th overall in the FIFA standings, with the best World Cup betting sites pricing Bafana Bafana as outsiders to advance from Group A. Since reaching the last 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations at the beginning of the year, they have endured a four-match winless run in friendly fixtures.

South Africa recorded a draw and a loss against Panama during March’s international break, before being held to a goalless stalemate by Nicaragua at the end of May. Many online apps then credited Broos’s side with a 1-0 win over Jamaica last Saturday, but it was confirmed eight hours after the behind-closed-doors fixture that the spoils had actually been shared in a 1-1 draw.

Broos admitted after the match that his team’s performance was “not what I expected” and he will analyse “what was really wrong” ahead of their opening Group A clash with Mexico, who South Africa beat 2-1 in their most recent meeting at the CONCACAF Gold Cup in July 2005.

Mexico form (all competitions):

South Africa form (all competitions):

The view from South Africa

Ayomide Oguntimehin, Afrik-Foot South Africa

"Mexico vs. South Africa feels like a reverse replay of the 2010 FIFA World Cup opener, but the circumstances are very different. While Mexico enter as hosts backed by a passionate home crowd, Bafana Bafana begin their first World Cup campaign in 16 years. The difference between now and then is that the Southern African side are looking to make a statement on the global stage.

"The challenge facing Hugo Broos's men could hardly be greater. Playing the opening match against the host nation is one of the toughest assignments in international football, but South Africa have shown resilience throughout their journey back to the World Cup - particularly against Nigeria. If they can withstand the early pressure and remain disciplined defensively, they have the tools to make this a far more competitive contest than many expect."

Team News

Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, 40, is hoping to become the first player to compete at six World Cups this summer, but the 40-year-old faces stern competition from Raul Rangel for a start between the sticks on Thursday.

Captain Edson Alvarez is set to earn his 99th international cap at centre-back alongside Cesar Montes, while Aguirre has a big decision to make over whether to start 17-year-old sensation Gilberto Mora in midfield, or opt for a more experienced head in Orbelin Pineda or Luis Chavez.

Departing Fulham striker Raul Jimenez will become Mexico’s joint-second all-time leading goalscorer (along with Jared Borgetti on 46 goals) if he find the net once against South Africa. The 35-year-old is likely to be joined in attack by Roberto Alvarado and Julian Quinones, the latter scored 33 goals in just 31 Saudi Pro League games for Al-Qadsiah to win the division’s Golden Boot for 2025-26.

As for South Africa, Aubrey Modiba is in contention to start at left-back after recovering from a hamstring injury and completing a full training session earlier this week, while Ime Okon and Mbekezeli Mbokazi could be selected to start at the heart of the defence.

Teboho Mokoena, Thalente Mbatha and Yaya Sithole are all set to link arms in a three-man midfield, with Broos likely to deploy a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation that allows Khuliso Mudau and Modiba to provide width as full-backs.

Oswin Appollis directly contributed to a team-high six goals in World Cup qualifying (two goals, four assists) and the Orlando Pirates winger could provide support in attack for Burnley striker Lyle Foster, who scored in the 1-1 draw with Jamaica last time out.

Mexico possible starting lineup:

Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Alvarez, Gallardo; Gutierrez, Fidalgo, Pineda; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones

South Africa possible starting lineup:

Williams; Mudau, Mbokazi, Okon, Modiba; Mbatha, Sithole, Mokoena; Appollis, Foster, Moremi

We say: Mexico 2-1 South Africa

The fact that Mexico have kept six clean sheets in their last eight internationals should not faze a South African outfit who have found the net in nine of their last 11 matches heading into the World Cup. Furthermore, five of the last six fixtures involving Bafana Bafana have seen both teams score.

Broos typically adopts a more pragmatic, counter-attacking approach against stronger opposition, though, and remaining laser-focused in a highly hostile Azteca atmosphere could prove challenging.

Indeed, Mexico possess the home advantage and superior squad depth over South Africa. With that in mind, expect El Tri to handle the pressure and kick-start their World Cup campaign in positive fashion.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.