Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 52.44%. A draw had a probability of 25.74% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 21.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%) , while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (7.17%).