Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 20

Feb 2, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
3 - 2
Lyon

Greenwood (61'), Rabiot (64'), Henrique (85')
Murillo (42'), De Zerbi (62'), Balerdi (68'), Cornelius (90+4'), Hojbjerg (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tolisso (53'), Lacazette (72' pen.)
Tagliafico (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Nice 2-0 Marseille
Sunday, January 26 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Lyon

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lyon 1-1 Ludogorets
Thursday, January 30 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 43.06%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Lyon
43.06% ( 0.05)	24.07% ( 0.01)	32.87% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 60.25% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.94% (

-0.04)

42.05% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.54% (

-0.05)

64.46% (

0.05)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.25% (

0.01)

19.74% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.22% (

0.01)

51.78% (

-0.01)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.08% (

-0.06)

24.92% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.45% (

-0.08)

59.54% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Marseille 43.06%

Lyon 32.87%

Draw 24.07%

Marseille	Draw	Lyon
2-1 @ 9% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.87% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.42% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 3.1% Total : 43.06%	1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.07%	1-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.66% Total : 32.87%