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Marseille
Coupe de France | Round of 32
Jan 14, 2025 at 8.10pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Lille

Marseille
1 - 1
Lille

Henrique (90+6')
Maupay (62')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Arnar Haraldsson (69')
Bakker (54'), Diakite (90')
Lille win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coupe de France clash between Marseille and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rennes 1-2 Marseille
Saturday, January 11 at 8.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Auxerre 0-0 Lille
Friday, January 10 at 8.05pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 2-1 Lille

The competition's format of penalties following normal time means Marseille will want to finish the tie in 90 minutes to avoid another shoot-out after consecutive disappointments in 2023 and last year. Backed by the home support, De Zerbi's free-scoring side should eke out a close victory over Lille to end the away side's 19-match unbeaten sequence and Les Olympiens' four-game streak without beating Tuesday's opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Lille had a probability of 32.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Lille win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%).

Result
MarseilleDrawLille
42.2% (-0.43 -0.43) 25.78% (0.207 0.21) 32.01% (0.218 0.22)
Both teams to score 54.05% (-0.593 -0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50% (-0.81 -0.81)49.99% (0.805 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.02% (-0.725 -0.72)71.97% (0.721 0.72)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.48% (-0.562 -0.56)23.52% (0.558 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.44% (-0.818 -0.82)57.55% (0.814 0.81)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.67% (-0.258 -0.26)29.32% (0.252 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.7% (-0.316 -0.32)65.29% (0.31 0.31)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 42.2%
    Lille 32.02%
    Draw 25.77%
MarseilleDrawLille
1-0 @ 9.98% (0.161 0.16)
2-1 @ 8.86% (-0.065 -0.06)
2-0 @ 7.22% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 4.28% (-0.103 -0.1)
3-0 @ 3.49% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.62% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-1 @ 1.55% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.26% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 2%
Total : 42.2%
1-1 @ 12.24% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 6.89% (0.222 0.22)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.77%
0-1 @ 8.46% (0.214 0.21)
1-2 @ 7.51% (0.015999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.19% (0.095 0.09)
1-3 @ 3.07% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.22% (-0.049 -0.05)
0-3 @ 2.12% (0.024 0.02)
1-4 @ 0.94% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 32.02%

How you voted: Marseille vs Lille

Marseille
81.8%
Draw
10.9%
Lille
7.3%
55
Head to Head
Dec 14, 2024 4pm
Gameweek 15
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Merlin (17')
Hojbjerg (86'), De Zerbi (90+5')
Lirola (90+5')
Diakite (87')
Diakite (63'), Andre (90+2'), Gomes (90+2')
Apr 5, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 28
Lille
3-1
Marseille
David (54' pen.), Cabella (71'), Gudmundsson (84')
Santos (21')
Ismaily (81')
Harit (27'), Gigot (52'), Merlin (57'), Kondogbia (70'), Balerdi (77'), Veretout (90+6')
Nov 4, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 11
Marseille
0-0
Lille
Harit (42'), Gigot (53')
Andre (27'), Bentaleb (70'), Yazici (73')
May 20, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 36
Lille
2-1
Marseille
David (50' pen.), Bamba (72')
Andre (57'), Bamba (73'), Bayo (85')
Clauss (29')
Balerdi (37'), Rongier (55')
Sep 10, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 7
Marseille
2-1
Lille
Sanchez (26'), Gigot (61')
Ismaily (12')
rhs 2.0
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