Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 37.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.54%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Marseille in this match.