Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 64.5%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 16.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.27%) and 1-0 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.