Ligue 1 Gameweek 27
Mar 22, 2026 4.15pm
Stade Vélodrome

Marseille vs Lille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Mar 13, 2026 7.45pm
Marseille 1 - 0 Auxerre
Goals scored
53
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Lille

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 7.45pm
Rennes 1 - 2 Lille
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Matías Fernández-Pardo

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 49.2%. A win for Lille has a probability of 25.89% and a draw has a probability of 24.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Lille win is 0-1 (6.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.53%).

Result

Marseille 49.2% (-0.03)
Draw 24.91% (-0.04)
Lille 25.89% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.79% (+0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.21% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 23.79% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 52.51% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 47.49% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 29.88% (+0.10)
Under 3.5 70.12% (-0.10)
Over 4.5 17.23% (+0.09)
Under 4.5 82.77% (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Marseille 34.79%
Draw 41.16%
Lille 24.05%

Team To Score First

Marseille 53.36% (-0.01)
No Goal 6.62% (-0.04)
Lille 40.02% (+0.05)

Corners

Over 8 51.05% (+0.01)
Equal 8 12.01%
Under 8 36.94% (-0.02)
Over 9 39.44% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.61%
Under 9 48.95% (-0.01)
Over 10.5 29.12%
Under 10.5 70.88%

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 47.59% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 52.41% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 22.16% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 77.84% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 8.66% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 91.34% (-0.04)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5 61.47% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 38.53% (-0.07)
Over 1.5 28.58% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 71.42% (-0.10)
Over 2.5 10.23% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 89.77% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 2.91% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.09% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Marseille 49.2%
Draw 24.91%
Lille 25.89%
Marseille
1-0 @ 10.38% (-0.06)
2-1 @ 9.7%
2-0 @ 8.37% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 4.87% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.74% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.72% (+0.03)
Other @ 8.42% (+0.03)
Total : 49.2%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.53% (-0.04)
0-0 @ 6.62% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 5.35% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.17%
Other @ 0.24% (+0.01)
Total : 24.91%
Lille
0-1 @ 6.79% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 6.48% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.8% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.43% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.01% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 2.67% (+0.01)
Total : 25.89%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Dec 5, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Ethan Mbappe Lottin 10' goal
  • Berke Ozer 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Arthur Vermeeren 26'
  • yellowcard Arthur Vermeeren 27'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 32
May 4, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Pierre-Mauroy
  • Ismaily 65' yellowcard
  • Matias Fernandez Pardo 74' goal
  • Alexsandro 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ismael Bennacer 29'
  • goal Amine Gouiri 57'
  • yellowcard Ulisses Garcia 73'
Coupe de France
Jan 14, 2025 8.10pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • 38' goal
  • Neal Maupay 62' yellowcard
  • Luis Henrique 90'+6' goal
  • yellowcard Mitchel Bakker 54'
  • goal Hakon Arnar Haraldsson 69'
  • yellowcard Bafode Diakite 90'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 15
Dec 14, 2024 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Quentin Merlin 17' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 86' yellowcard
  • Pol Lirola 90'+5' redcard
  • Roberto De Zerbi 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bafode Diakite 63'
  • goal Bafode Diakite 87'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Andre 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Andre Gomes 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 28
Apr 5, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Pierre-Mauroy
  • Tiago Santos 21' yellowcard
  • Jonathan David 54' goal
  • Remy Cabella 71' goal
  • Gabriel Gudmundsson 84' goal
  • yellowcard Amine Harit 27'
  • yellowcard Samuel Gigot 52'
  • yellowcard Quentin Merlin 57'
  • yellowcard Geoffrey Kondogbia 70'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Balerdi 77'
  • goal Ismaily 81'
  • yellowcard Jordan Veretout 90'+6'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Nov 4, 2023 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Amine Harit 42' yellowcard
  • Samuel Gigot 53' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Benjamin Andre 27'
  • yellowcard Nabil Bentaleb 70'
  • yellowcard Yusuf Yazici 73'