Ligue 1 Gameweek 23
Feb 20, 2026 7.45pm
Stade Francis-Le Ble

Brest vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 6.00pm
Lille 1 - 1 Brest
Goals scored
25
Top scorer
Eric Ebimbe

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 4.00pm
Marseille 2 - 2 Strasbourg
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Brest has a probability of 32.43% and a draw has a probability of 21.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (6.24%) and 0-2 (5.87%). The likeliest Brest win is 2-1 (7.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.98%).

Result

Brest 32.43%
Draw 21.98% (-0.04)
Marseille 45.62% (+0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.95% (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.64% (+0.10)
Under 1.5 15.36% (-0.09)
Over 2.5 65.85% (+0.15)
Under 2.5 34.15% (-0.15)
Over 3.5 43.63% (+0.18)
Under 3.5 56.37% (-0.18)
Over 4.5 27.58% (+0.14)
Under 4.5 72.42% (-0.15)

First Half Winner

Brest 25.28%
Draw 38.81%
Marseille 35.91%

Team To Score First

Brest 41.75% (+0.01)
No Goal 4.08% (-0.02)
Marseille 54.17% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 61.88%
Equal 8 11.52%
Under 8 26.6%
Over 9 49.71%
Equal 9 12.17%
Under 9 38.12%
Over 10.5 38%
Under 10.5 62%

Brest Goals

Over 1.5 40.56% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 59.44% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 18.33% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 81.67% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 7.05% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 92.95% (-0.07)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 78.03% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 21.97% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 51.6% (+0.10)
Under 1.5 48.4% (-0.10)
Over 2.5 26.78% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 73.22% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 11.33% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 88.67% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Brest 32.42%
Draw 21.99%
Marseille 45.62%
Brest
2-1 @ 7.3% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 5.07% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 3.95% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.91% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.29% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 2.15% (-0.03)
Other @ 6.75% (+0.06)
Total : 32.42%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.98% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 6.7% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.08% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.93% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.99%
Marseille
1-2 @ 8.96% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 6.24% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.87%
1-3 @ 5.43% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 4.28% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 3.81%
Other @ 11.03% (+0.05)
Total : 45.62%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Nov 8, 2025 4.00pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1 Gameweek 31
Apr 27, 2025 7.45pm
4
1
HT : 3 1
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Amine Gouiri 8' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 37' goal
  • Michael Murillo 41' yellowcard
  • Amine Gouiri 45' goal
  • Amine Gouiri 63' goal
  • goal Abdallah Sima 25'
  • yellowcard Ludovic Ajorque 36'
  • yellowcard Brendan Chardonnet 71'
  • yellowcard Julien Le Cardinal 88'
  • yellowcard Pierre Lees-Melou 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 1
Aug 17, 2024 4.00pm
1
5
HT : 1 3
FT Stade Francis-Le Ble
  • Mathias Pereira Lage 16' yellowcard
  • Jonas Martin 31' yellowcard
  • Kenny Lala 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Mahdi Camara 45'+6' goal
  • Jordan Amavi 74' yellowcard
  • goal Mason Greenwood 3'
  • yellowcard Derek Cornelius 7'
  • goal Luis Henrique 26'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 31'
  • goal Luis Henrique 48'
  • goal Elye Wahi 69'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 22
Feb 18, 2024 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Francis-Le Ble
  • Kenny Lala 12' yellowcard
  • Brendan Chardonnet 35' yellowcard
  • Steve Mounie 60' redcard
  • Pierre Lees-Melou 88' goal
  • Julien Le Cardinal 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Leonardo Balerdi 49'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Aug 26, 2023 6.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Chancel Mbemba 4' goal
  • Ismaila Sarr 65' goal
  • yellowcard Martin Satriano 73'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 37
May 27, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Chancel Mbemba 75' goal
  • goal Hugo Magnetti 57'
  • goal Mahdi Camara 81'