Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 49.28%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (6.53%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.