Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Strasbourg had a probability of 34.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Strasbourg win was 2-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.