Coupe de France
Mar 4, 2026 8.00pm
Stade Vélodrome

Marseille vs Toulouse - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Toulouse

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Marseille win with a probability of 50.95%. A win for Toulouse has a probability of 24.94% and a draw has a probability of 24.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Toulouse win is 0-1 (6.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.43%).

Result

Marseille 50.95% (+5.60)
Draw 24.11% (-1.33)
Toulouse 24.94% (-4.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.12% (-0.41)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.26% (+1.41)
Under 1.5 22.74% (-1.41)
Over 2.5 54.18% (+2.29)
Under 2.5 45.82% (-2.25)
Over 3.5 31.27% (+1.17)
Under 3.5 68.73% (-1.16)
Over 4.5 18.51% (+1.48)
Under 4.5 81.49% (-1.47)

First Half Winner

Marseille 38.14% (+2.67)
Draw 40.54% (-0.94)
Toulouse 21.32% (-1.72)

Team To Score First

Marseille 57.7% (+4.45)
No Goal 6.07% (-0.55)
Toulouse 36.23% (-3.90)

Corners

Over 8 48.26% (-0.27)
Equal 8 12.18% (-0.22)
Under 8 39.57% (+0.48)
Over 9 36.74% (-0.04)
Equal 9 11.52% (-0.23)
Under 9 51.74% (+0.27)
Over 10.5 26.73% (+0.16)
Under 10.5 73.26% (-0.16)

Marseille Goals

Over 1.5 49.32% (+5.14)
Under 1.5 50.68% (-5.14)
Over 2.5 24.31% (+4.04)
Under 2.5 75.69% (-4.05)
Over 3.5 9.65% (+2.33)
Under 3.5 90.35% (-2.33)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5 61.07% (-3.81)
Under 0.5 38.93% (+3.82)
Over 1.5 28.29% (-3.15)
Under 1.5 71.71% (+3.15)
Over 2.5 9.79% (-1.47)
Under 2.5 90.21% (+1.46)
Over 3.5 2.74% (-0.66)
Under 3.5 97.26% (+0.67)

Score analysis

Marseille 50.95%
Draw 24.11%
Toulouse 24.94%
Marseille
1-0 @ 10.13% (+0.22)
2-1 @ 9.68% (+0.71)
2-0 @ 8.08% (+0.84)
3-0 @ 5.15% (+1.11)
3-1 @ 5.13% (+0.46)
3-2 @ 3.28% (+0.06)
Other @ 9.5% (+2.20)
Total : 50.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.43% (-0.76)
0-0 @ 6.07% (-0.55)
2-2 @ 5.36% (-0.23)
3-3 @ 1.1% (+0.11)
Other @ 0.15% (+0.13)
Total : 24.11%
Toulouse
0-1 @ 6.54% (-1.08)
1-2 @ 6.29% (-0.55)
0-2 @ 3.57% (-0.97)
1-3 @ 2.27% (-0.54)
2-3 @ 1.89% (-0.22)
0-3 @ 1.79% (-0.14)
Other @ 2.59% (-0.79)
Total : 24.94%

Head to Head

Ligue 1
Nov 29, 2025 8.05pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Angel Gomes 42' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixao 66' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 74' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 75' yellowcard
  • goal Emersonn Correia da Silva 14'
  • yellowcard Mark McKenzie 81'
  • goal Santiago Hidalgo 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Gabriel Suazo 21' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 24' yellowcard
  • Mason Greenwood 57' goal
  • Adrien Rabiot 64' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Frank Magri 28'
  • yellowcard Shavy Babicka 32'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 56'
  • yellowcard Cristian Casseres Jr 68'
  • goal Vincent Sierro 76'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Aug 31, 2024 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Frank Magri 27' redcard
  • Cristian Casseres Jr 44' yellowcard
  • Aron Donnum 49' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 73' yellowcard
  • Vincent Sierro 82' yellowcard
  • Carles Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 90' goal
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 10'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 16'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 17'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 52' (OG)
  • yellowcard Lilian Brassier 73'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
  • Moussa Diarra 39' yellowcard
  • Rasmus Nicolaisen 45'+2' goal
  • Yann Gboho 82' goal
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 33'
  • goal Jean Onana 38'
  • yellowcard Azzedine Ounahi 47'
  • goal Faris Moumbagna 90'+6'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 5
Sep 17, 2023 4.05pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
  • Joaquin Correa 64' yellowcard
  • Amine Harit 89' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 80'+80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Niklas Schmidt 4'
  • yellowcard Mikkel Desler 45'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 77'
  • yellowcard Guillaume Restes 79'
  • yellowcard Mamady Bangre 90'+5'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 24
Feb 19, 2023 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Thijs Dallinga 3' goal
  • Ado Onaiwu 87' goal
  • goal Chancel Mbemba 52'
  • goal Cengiz Under 59'
  • goal Nuno Tavares 78'