Ligue 1 Gameweek 25
Toulouse
Mar 7, 2026 8.05pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse
Marseille
  • Santiago Hidalgo 46' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vossah 69' yellowcard
  • Jacen Russell-Rowe 78' yellowcard
  • Julián Vignolo 79' yellowcard
  • Mario Sauer 84' yellowcard
  • goal Mason Greenwood 18'
  • yellowcard Amine Gouiri 66'
  • yellowcard Tochukwu Nnadi 66'
  • yellowcard Arthur Vermeeren 82'
  • yellowcard Emerson 82'
  • yellowcard Emerson 83'

Toulouse vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 4.00pm
Rennes 1 - 0 Toulouse
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Yann Gboho

Marseille

All competitions
Last game
Mar 1, 2026 7.45pm
Marseille 3 - 2 Lyon
Goals scored
53
Top scorer
Amine Gouiri

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.8%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (8.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result

Toulouse 36.45% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 24.69% ▲ (+0.04)
Marseille 38.86% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.77% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.32% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 20.68% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 56.91% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 43.09% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 34.18% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 65.82% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 4.5 19.75% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 80.25% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Toulouse 29.28%
Draw 39.39%
Marseille 31.33%

Team To Score First

Toulouse 45.77% ▼ (-0.01)
No Goal 5.45% ▲ (+0.04)
Marseille 48.78% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 54.64% ▲ (+0.03)
Equal 8 12% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 8 33.36% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 9 42.7% ▼ (-0.05)
Equal 9 11.94% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 9 45.36% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 10.5 31.83% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 10.5 68.17% ▲ (+0.11)

Toulouse Goals

Over 1.5 40.12% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 59.88% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 16.99% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 83.01% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 5.89% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.11% ▼ (-0.02)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 73.36% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 0.5 26.64% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 41.99% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 58.01% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 18.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 81.71% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 6.51% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 93.49% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Toulouse 36.45%
Draw 24.7%
Marseille 38.86%
Toulouse
2-1 @ 8.36%
1-0 @ 7.44% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 5.35% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 3.94% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.95% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.73% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 5.68%
Total : 36.45%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.27% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.29% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.45% ▲ (+0.04)
3-3 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.21% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 24.7%
Marseille
1-2 @ 8.68%
0-1 @ 7.8% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 5.78%
1-3 @ 4.2% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.13% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.97% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 6.3% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 38.86%

Head to Head

Coupe de France
Marseille
Mar 4, 2026 8.00pm
2
2
ET Stade Vélodrome
Toulouse
  • Mason Greenwood 2' yellowcard
  • Ethan Nwaneri 46' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixão 56' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 58' yellowcard
  • Hamed Junior Traoré 90' yellowcard
  • goal Yann Gboho 13'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 60'
  • yellowcard Warren Kamanzi 65'
  • yellowcard Jacen Russell-Rowe 83'
Ligue 1
Marseille
Nov 29, 2025 8.05pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Toulouse
  • Angel Gomes 42' yellowcard
  • Igor Paixao 66' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 74' goal
  • Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 75' yellowcard
  • goal Emersonn Correia da Silva 14'
  • yellowcard Mark McKenzie 81'
  • goal Santiago Hidalgo 90'+2'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 28
Marseille
Apr 6, 2025 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Gabriel Suazo 21' goal
  • Mason Greenwood 24' yellowcard
  • Mason Greenwood 57' goal
  • Adrien Rabiot 64' goal
  • Bilal Nadir 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Frank Magri 28'
  • yellowcard Shavy Babicka 32'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 56'
  • yellowcard Cristian Casseres Jr 68'
  • goal Vincent Sierro 76'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 3
Toulouse
Aug 31, 2024 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille
  • Frank Magri 27' redcard
  • Cristian Casseres Jr 44' yellowcard
  • Aron Donnum 49' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 73' yellowcard
  • Vincent Sierro 82' yellowcard
  • Carles Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • Shavy Babicka 90' goal
  • yellowcard Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 10'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 16'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 17'
  • goal Charlie Cresswell 52' (OG)
  • yellowcard Lilian Brassier 73'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 30
Toulouse
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille
  • Moussa Diarra 39' yellowcard
  • Rasmus Nicolaisen 45'+2' goal
  • Yann Gboho 82' goal
  • yellowcard Michael Murillo 33'
  • goal Jean Onana 38'
  • yellowcard Azzedine Ounahi 47'
  • goal Faris Moumbagna 90'+6'
Ligue 1 Gameweek 5
Marseille
Sep 17, 2023 4.05pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Velodrome
Toulouse
  • Joaquin Correa 64' yellowcard
  • Amine Harit 89' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 80'+80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Niklas Schmidt 4'
  • yellowcard Mikkel Desler 45'
  • yellowcard Frank Magri 77'
  • yellowcard Guillaume Restes 79'
  • yellowcard Mamady Bangre 90'+5'

Form Data

Marseille 2 - 2 Toulouse
Rennes 1 - 0 Toulouse
Toulouse 1 - 1 Paris FC
Le Havre 2 - 1 Toulouse
Angers 1 - 0 Toulouse
Toulouse 1 - 0 Amiens
Marseille 2 - 2 Toulouse
Marseille 3 - 2 Lyon
Brest 2 - 0 Marseille
Marseille 2 - 2 Strasbourg
PSG 5 - 0 Marseille
Marseille 3 - 0 Rennes