Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 51.07%. A win for Lille had a probability of 25.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (6.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.