Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Lille had a probability of 35.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Lille win was 2-1 (7.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.