Liga MX Gameweek 3
Toluca
Aug 3, 2026 2.05am
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
Necaxa
  • Ivan López 29' goal
  • Everardo del Villar 45'+5' goal
  • Luis Jiménez 57' goal
  • Franco Romero 90'+7' yellowcard
  • goal Julián Carranza 42'
  • yellowcard Raúl Alejandro Martínez Ruiz 45'+4'
  • redcard Julián Carranza 45'+6'
  • yellowcard Agustín Oliveros 45'+7'
  • redcard Agustín Oliveros 80'
  • yellowcard Juan Valencia 90'+7'

Toluca vs Necaxa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Jul 22, 2026 4.05am
Toluca 1 - 2 Pumas

Necaxa

All competitions
Last game
Jul 27, 2026 12.00am
Necaxa 2 - 1 Monterrey

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 64.09%. A draw had a probability of 20.84% and a win for Necaxa had a probability of 15.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.16%) , while for a Necaxa win it was 0-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result

Toluca 64.09% ▲ (+0.29)
Draw 20.84% ▲ (+0.13)
Necaxa 15.03% ▼ (-0.48)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.11% ▼ (-0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.39% ▼ (-0.35)
Under 1.5 21.61% ▲ (+0.35)
Over 2.5 56.71% ▼ (-0.33)
Under 2.5 43.29% ▲ (+0.33)
Over 3.5 34.68% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 3.5 65.32% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 4.5 22.6% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 4.5 77.4% ▼ (-0.06)

First Half Winner

Toluca 46.03% ▼ (-0.93)
Draw 36.5% ▲ (+1.00)
Necaxa 17.47% ▼ (-0.08)

Team To Score First

Toluca 65.52% ▼ (-0.22)
No Goal 6.16% ▲ (+0.12)
Necaxa 28.32% ▲ (+0.11)

Corners

Over 8 65.6% ▲ (+2.90)
Equal 8 10.66% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 8 23.74% ▼ (-2.87)
Over 9 54.02% ▲ (+2.66)
Equal 9 11.58% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 9 34.4% ▼ (-2.90)
Over 10.5 42.53% ▲ (+2.19)
Under 10.5 57.47% ▼ (-2.19)

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 59.79% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 40.21% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 33.43% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 66.57% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 15.37% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 84.63% ▼ (-0.03)

Necaxa Goals

Over 0.5 49.46% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 0.5 50.54% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 1.5 19.64% ▼ (-0.44)
Under 1.5 80.36% ▲ (+0.44)
Over 2.5 6.07% ▼ (-0.28)
Under 2.5 93.93% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 3.5 1.66% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 98.34% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Toluca 64.09%
Draw 20.85%
Necaxa 15.03%
Toluca
1-0 @ 11.24% ▲ (+0.18)
2-0 @ 10.68% ▼ (-0.02)
2-1 @ 9.98% ▲ (+0.07)
3-0 @ 7.23% ▼ (-0.08)
3-1 @ 6.5% ▲ (+0.04)
3-2 @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 15.2% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 64.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.16% ▲ (+0.07)
0-0 @ 6.16% ▲ (+0.12)
2-2 @ 4.29% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.17% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 20.85%
Necaxa
0-1 @ 4.18%
1-2 @ 4.17% ▼ (-0.17)
0-2 @ 1.85% ▼ (-0.06)
2-3 @ 1.41% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.49% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 15.03%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 7
Necaxa
Feb 22, 2026 1.00am
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
Toluca
  • Javier Ruiz 57' yellowcard
  • Emilio Lara 57' yellowcard
  • Tomás Badaloni 76' yellowcard
  • Kevin Gutiérrez 87' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossano 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 62'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 75'
  • goal Paulinho 79'
  • goal Paulinho 83'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 86'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Isaís 86'
  • yellowcard Luan 86'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Isaís 87'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 87'
  • yellowcard Luan 88'
  • goal Federico Pereira 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Toluca
Jul 13, 2025 2.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Necaxa
Liga MX Gameweek 11
Toluca
Mar 8, 2025 11.00pm
5
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Necaxa
  • Paulinho 28' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 39' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseno 53' goal
  • Paulinho 45'+9' goal
  • Alexis Vega 56' goal
  • Alexis Vega 76' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 83' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 84' goal
  • Federico Pereira 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Diber Cambindo 11'
  • yellowcard Emilio Lara 35'
  • yellowcard Diber Cambindo 38'
  • goal Jose Paradela 44'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 78'
  • yellowcard Kevin Rosero 83'
  • yellowcard Ezequiel Unsain 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Necaxa
Oct 28, 2024 12.00am
1
3
HT : 0 4
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
Toluca
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
Liga MX Gameweek 6
Necaxa
Feb 10, 2024 11.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
Toluca
  • Diber Cambindo 27' goal
  • Eduardo Fentanes 31' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 43' goal
  • Jose Paradela 73' yellowcard
  • Diber Cambindo 89' goal
  • goal Jean Meneses 6'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 30'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 58'
  • goal Tomas Belmonte 68'
  • goal Ezequiel Unsain 77' (OG)
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Toluca
Jul 2, 2023 7.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Necaxa

Form Data

Toluca 1 - 2 Pumas
Guadalajara 0 - 2 Toluca
Toluca 0 - 0 Atlante
Cancún 1 - 0 Toluca
Toluca 1 - 1 Tigres
Pachuca 2 - 0 Toluca
Necaxa 2 - 1 Monterrey
Necaxa 2 - 1 Atlante
Club Leon 0 - 0 Necaxa
Atlas 0 - 0 Necaxa
Correcaminos UAT 0 - 0 Necaxa
Necaxa 0 - 0 Morelia