Liga MX Gameweek 3
Aug 3, 2026 2.00am
Estadio Nemesio Díez

Toluca vs Necaxa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Jul 22, 2026 4.05am
Toluca 1 - 2 Pumas

Necaxa

All competitions
Last game
Jul 27, 2026 12.00am
Necaxa 2 - 1 Monterrey

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 63.78%. A draw has a probability of 20.75% and a win for Necaxa has a probability of 15.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.09%) , while for a Necaxa win it is 1-2 (4.3%).

Result

Toluca 63.78%
Draw 20.75%
Necaxa 15.47%

Both Teams to Score: 

51.25%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.7%
Under 1.5 21.3%
Over 2.5 56.94%
Under 2.5 43.06%
Over 3.5 34.59%
Under 3.5 65.41%
Over 4.5 22.55%
Under 4.5 77.45%

First Half Winner

Toluca 46.8%
Draw 35.59%
Necaxa 17.61%

Team To Score First

Toluca 65.67%
No Goal 6.08%
Necaxa 28.25%

Corners

Over 8 63.08%
Equal 8 10.69%
Under 8 26.23%
Over 9 51.73%
Equal 9 11.35%
Under 9 36.92%
Over 10.5 40.66%
Under 10.5 59.34%

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 59.76%
Under 1.5 40.24%
Over 2.5 33.38%
Under 2.5 66.62%
Over 3.5 15.37%
Under 3.5 84.63%

Necaxa Goals

Over 0.5 49.65%
Under 0.5 50.35%
Over 1.5 20.05%
Under 1.5 79.95%
Over 2.5 6.38%
Under 2.5 93.62%
Over 3.5 1.68%
Under 3.5 98.32%

Score analysis

Toluca 63.79%
Draw 20.76%
Necaxa 15.47%
Toluca
1-0 @ 11.07%
2-0 @ 10.74%
2-1 @ 9.89%
3-0 @ 7.31%
3-1 @ 6.45%
3-2 @ 3.16%
Other @ 15.17%
Total : 63.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.09%
0-0 @ 6.08%
2-2 @ 4.3%
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 20.76%
Necaxa
1-2 @ 4.3%
0-1 @ 4.17%
0-2 @ 1.91%
2-3 @ 1.45%
1-3 @ 1.3%
Other @ 1.48%
Total : 15.47%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 7
Feb 22, 2026 1.00am
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Javier Ruiz 57' yellowcard
  • Emilio Lara 57' yellowcard
  • Tomás Badaloni 76' yellowcard
  • Kevin Gutiérrez 87' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossano 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 62'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 75'
  • goal Paulinho 79'
  • goal Paulinho 83'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 86'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Isaís 86'
  • yellowcard Luan 86'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Isaís 87'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 87'
  • yellowcard Luan 88'
  • goal Federico Pereira 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 13, 2025 2.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 11
Mar 8, 2025 11.00pm
5
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 28' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 39' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseno 53' goal
  • Paulinho 45'+9' goal
  • Alexis Vega 56' goal
  • Alexis Vega 76' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 83' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 84' goal
  • Federico Pereira 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Diber Cambindo 11'
  • yellowcard Emilio Lara 35'
  • yellowcard Diber Cambindo 38'
  • goal Jose Paradela 44'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 78'
  • yellowcard Kevin Rosero 83'
  • yellowcard Ezequiel Unsain 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Oct 28, 2024 12.00am
1
3
HT : 0 4
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
Liga MX Gameweek 6
Feb 10, 2024 11.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Diber Cambindo 27' goal
  • Eduardo Fentanes 31' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 43' goal
  • Jose Paradela 73' yellowcard
  • Diber Cambindo 89' goal
  • goal Jean Meneses 6'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 30'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 58'
  • goal Tomas Belmonte 68'
  • goal Ezequiel Unsain 77' (OG)
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 2, 2023 7.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez