Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queretaro win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queretaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 0-1 (7.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.