Liga MX Gameweek 13
Apr 5, 2026 12.00am
Estadio La Corregidora

Queretaro vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Queretaro

All competitions
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 11.00pm
Atlas 0 - 0 Queretaro
Goals scored
27
Top scorer
Mateo Coronel

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 22, 2026 11.00pm
Pachuca 1 - 1 Toluca
Goals scored
67
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 57.08%. A draw has a probability of 24.18% and a win for Queretaro has a probability of 18.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.78%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.21%) , while for a Queretaro win it is 1-0 (6.66%).

Result

Queretaro 18.7% (-0.04)
Draw 24.18% (+0.04)
Toluca 57.08% (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.64% (-0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.84% (-0.10)
Under 1.5 28.16% (+0.09)
Over 2.5 47.03% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 52.97% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 25.72% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 74.28% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 14.77% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 85.23% (+0.03)

First Half Winner

Queretaro 21.17% (+0.05)
Draw 40.63% (+0.10)
Toluca 38.21% (-0.14)

Team To Score First

Queretaro 30.66% (-0.02)
No Goal 8.09% (+0.04)
Toluca 61.25% (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 57.94%
Equal 8 11.52%
Under 8 30.54%
Over 9 46.18%
Equal 9 11.76%
Under 9 42.06%
Over 10.5 35.18% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 64.82% (-0.02)

Queretaro Goals

Over 1.5 19.6% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 80.4% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 5.11% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 94.89% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 1.19%
Under 3.5 98.81%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 80.46% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 19.54% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 49.7% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 50.3% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 23.82% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 76.18% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 9.13% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 90.87% (+0.03)

Score analysis

Queretaro 18.71%
Draw 24.17%
Toluca 57.08%
Queretaro
1-0 @ 6.66% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 4.78% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 2.83%
3-1 @ 1.4%
3-2 @ 1.12%
Other @ 1.18%
Total : 18.71%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.21%
0-0 @ 8.09% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 4.2% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 24.17%
Toluca
0-1 @ 13.37% (+0.07)
0-2 @ 10.78%
1-2 @ 9.78% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 6.01% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 5.34%
2-3 @ 2.68%
Other @ 9.12% (-0.03)
Total : 57.08%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Oct 19, 2025 12.00am
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 9
Feb 27, 2025 3.00am
5
0
HT : 8 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Luan Garcia 25' goal
  • Luan Garcia 25' goal
  • Paulinho 31' goal
  • Paulinho 31' goal
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Alexis Vega 43' goal
  • Alexis Vega 43' goal
  • Robert Morales 89' goal
  • Robert Morales 89' goal
  • yellowcard Erick Fernando Gonzalez Garcia 40'
  • yellowcard Erick Fernando Gonzalez Garcia 40'
  • yellowcard Jaime Gomez 58'
  • yellowcard Jaime Gomez 58'
  • yellowcard Francisco Venegas 82'
  • yellowcard Francisco Venegas 82'
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Oct 19, 2024 2.00am
0
1
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio La Corregidora
  • Lucas Rodriguez 15' goal
  • Sebastian Hernandez 55' yellowcard
  • Sebastian Hernandez 55' yellowcard
  • Pablo Nicolas Ortiz 84' yellowcard
  • Pablo Nicolas Ortiz 84' yellowcard
  • goal Paulinho 45'+3'
  • goal Paulinho 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Luan Garcia 59'
  • yellowcard Luan Garcia 59'
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jan 13, 2024 1.00am
2
2
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio La Corregidora
  • Emanuel Gularte 7' goal
  • Emanuel Gularte 7' goal
  • Miguel Barbieri 33' yellowcard
  • Miguel Barbieri 33' yellowcard
  • Pablo Nicolas Ortiz 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Pablo Nicolas Ortiz 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Pablo Nicolas Ortiz 56' goal
  • Pablo Nicolas Ortiz 56' goal
  • Guillermo Allison 87' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Allison 87' yellowcard
  • goal Edgar Lopez 66'
  • goal Edgar Lopez 66'
  • yellowcard Edgar Lopez 73'
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Araujo 73'
  • yellowcard Edgar Lopez 73'
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Araujo 73'
  • goal Federico Pereira 90'+6'
  • goal Federico Pereira 90'+6'
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Oct 8, 2023 7.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Edgar Lopez 2' goal
  • Tiago Volpi 58' goal
  • Edgar Lopez 66' goal
  • yellowcard Emanuel Gularte 36'
  • goal Camilo Sanvezzo 40'
  • yellowcard Pablo Barrera 61'
  • yellowcard Kevin Escamilla 76'
Liga MX Gameweek 10
Mar 6, 2023 1.05am
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio La Corregidora
  • Jonathan Torres 31' goal