Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 63.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.84% and a win for Juarez had a probability of 14.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.9%) , while for a Juarez win it was 0-1 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.