Liga MX Gameweek 8
Feb 28, 2026 11.00pm
Estadio Nemesio Díez

Toluca vs CD Guadalajara - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Feb 22, 2026 1.00am
Necaxa 0 - 3 Toluca
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Paulinho

CD Guadalajara

All competitions
Last game
Feb 22, 2026 3.05am
Cruz Azul 2 - 1 Guadalajara
Goals scored
43
Top scorer
Armando Gonzalez

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 54.63%. A draw has a probability of 23.19% and a win for CD Guadalajara has a probability of 22.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.11%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.79%) , while for a CD Guadalajara win it is 0-1 (5.73%).

Result

Toluca 54.63%
Draw 23.19% (-0.04)
CD Guadalajara 22.17%

Both Teams to Score: 

55.16% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.38% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 21.62% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 55.28% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 44.72% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 33.26% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 66.74% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 19.56% (+0.05)
Under 4.5 80.44% (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Toluca 39.13%
Draw 38.33%
CD Guadalajara 22.54%

Team To Score First

Toluca 57.19%
No Goal 5.71% (-0.03)
CD Guadalajara 37.1% (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 50.77% (+0.02)
Equal 8 12.36% (+0.01)
Under 8 36.87% (-0.03)
Over 9 38.85%
Equal 9 11.92% (+0.01)
Under 9 49.23% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 28.31% (-0.02)
Under 10.5 71.69% (+0.02)

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 53.21% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 46.79% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 26.39% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 73.61% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 10.64% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 89.36% (-0.04)

CD Guadalajara Goals

Over 0.5 59.24% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 40.76% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 26.57% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 73.43% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 8.82% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 91.18% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 2.45% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 97.55% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Toluca 54.64%
Draw 23.2%
CD Guadalajara 22.18%
Toluca
1-0 @ 10.2% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 10.11%
2-0 @ 9.14% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.04%
3-0 @ 5.2%
3-2 @ 3.42%
Other @ 10.53% (+0.03)
Total : 54.64%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.79% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 5.71% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 5.5% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 23.2%
CD Guadalajara
0-1 @ 5.73% (-0.02)
1-2 @ 5.66%
0-2 @ 3.17% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.16% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.07% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.05% (+0.02)
Other @ 2.34% (+0.01)
Total : 22.18%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Sep 21, 2025 2.07am
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 7
Feb 16, 2025 3.10am
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Alexis Vega 34' goal
  • Alexis Vega 34' goal
  • Hugo Camberos Figueroa 90'+1' goal
  • Hugo Camberos Figueroa 90'+1' goal
  • Luan Garcia 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Luan Garcia 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal 20'
  • goal Hugo Camberos Figueroa 70'
  • goal Hugo Camberos Figueroa 70'
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 7, 2024 2.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio AKRON
  • Fernando Beltran 42' yellowcard
  • Fernando Beltran 45' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 63'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 64'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 64'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 64'
Liga MX
May 12, 2024 3.10am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Marcel Ruiz 45' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 45' yellowcard
  • Brian Garcia 58' redcard
  • Brian Garcia 59' redcard
  • Alexis Vega 80' goal
  • Alexis Vega 81' yellowcard
  • Jean Meneses 82' yellowcard
  • Jean Meneses 82' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jose Rangel 36'
  • yellowcard Jose Rangel 36'
  • yellowcard Alan Mozo 45'
  • yellowcard Alan Mozo 45'
  • yellowcard Jose Castillo 90'+5'
  • yellowcard Jose Castillo 90'+5'
Liga MX
May 9, 2024 2.05am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio AKRON
  • Pavel Perez 70' goal
  • Victor Alfonso Guzman Guzman 87' goal
  • Victor Alfonso Guzman Guzman 87' goal
  • Erick Gutierrez 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Erick Gutierrez 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Brian Garcia 83'
  • yellowcard Brian Garcia 83'
Liga MX Gameweek 4
Jan 31, 2024 3.05am
3
2
HT : 4 4
FT Estadio AKRON
  • Fernando Beltran 1' goal
  • Fernando Beltran 1' goal
  • Jesus Orozco 14' yellowcard
  • Jesus Orozco 14' yellowcard
  • Pavel Perez 43' goal
  • Pavel Perez 43' goal
  • Pavel Perez 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Pavel Perez 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Erick Gutierrez 62' yellowcard
  • Erick Gutierrez 62' yellowcard
  • Jose Castillo 65' yellowcard
  • Jose Castillo 65' yellowcard
  • Ricardo Marin 81' goal
  • Ricardo Marin 81' goal
  • goal Marcel Ruiz 7'
  • goal Marcel Ruiz 7'
  • goal Brian Garcia 45'+3'
  • goal Brian Garcia 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Tomas Belmonte 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 45'+9'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 45'+9'
  • yellowcard Jesus Angulo 71'
  • yellowcard Jesus Angulo 71'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 83'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 83'