Liga MX
Jan 31, 2026 1.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Cuauhtémoc
  • Kevin Velasco 46' yellowcard
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 46' yellowcard
  • Alonso Ramírez Jiménez 46' yellowcard
  • Alonso Ramírez 46' yellowcard
  • Jose Rodrigo Pachuca Martinez 69' yellowcard
  • José Pachuca 69' yellowcard
  • Jose Rodrigo Pachuca Martinez 70' yellowcard
  • Miguel Ramirez Perez 78' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 78' yellowcard
  • 78' yellowcard
  • 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Sebastian Cordova 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Franco Andres Rossi Donazar 61'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 61'
  • yellowcard 76'
  • yellowcard 76'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 80'
  • yellowcard Everardo Lopez 80'
  • yellowcard Jorge Roberto Díaz Price 83'
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 83'

Puebla vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Puebla

All competitions
Last game
Jan 18, 2026 3.05am
Cruz Azul 1 - 0 Puebla
Goals scored
25
Top scorer
Edgar Guerra

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Jan 18, 2026 1.00am
Tigres 0 - 0 Toluca
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 57.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.63% and a win for Puebla had a probability of 20.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.43%) and 1-2 (9.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%) , while for a Puebla win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result

Puebla 20.23% (+0.20)
Draw 22.63% (+0.42)
Toluca 57.14% (-0.62)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.61% (+1.48)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.19% (+0.82)
Under 1.5 23.81% (-0.82)
Over 2.5 51.87% (+0.86)
Under 2.5 48.13% (-0.86)
Over 3.5 29.57% (+0.52)
Under 3.5 70.43% (-0.52)
Over 4.5 17.34% (+0.13)
Under 4.5 82.66% (-0.13)

First Half Winner

Puebla 21.03% (-0.83)
Draw 37.18% (+0.82)
Toluca 41.79% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Puebla 31.21% (-0.51)
No Goal 6.44% (-0.34)
Toluca 62.35% (+0.86)

Corners

Over 8 57.43% (+0.30)
Equal 8 11.22% (+0.17)
Under 8 31.35% (-0.46)
Over 9 46.04% (+0.14)
Equal 9 11.39% (+0.17)
Under 9 42.57% (-0.30)
Over 10.5 35.4% (-0.04)
Under 10.5 64.6% (+0.04)

Puebla Goals

Over 1.5 22.48% (+0.95)
Under 1.5 77.52% (-0.96)
Over 2.5 6.61% (+0.30)
Under 2.5 93.39% (-0.30)
Over 3.5 1.63% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 98.37% (-0.01)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 81.86% (+0.52)
Under 0.5 18.14% (-0.52)
Over 1.5 52.77% (+0.20)
Under 1.5 47.23% (-0.20)
Over 2.5 26.16% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 73.84% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 10.55% (-0.17)
Under 3.5 89.45% (+0.16)

Score analysis

Puebla 20.24%
Draw 22.65%
Toluca 57.15%
Puebla
1-0 @ 6.07% (-0.17)
2-1 @ 5.23% (+0.27)
2-0 @ 3.08% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 1.73% (+0.08)
3-2 @ 1.54% (+0.04)
Other @ 1.62% (+0.02)
Total : 20.24%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.79% (+0.28)
0-0 @ 6.44% (-0.34)
2-2 @ 4.67% (+0.34)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 22.65%
Toluca
0-1 @ 11.34% (-0.28)
0-2 @ 10.43% (-0.31)
1-2 @ 9.97% (+0.16)
0-3 @ 6.13% (-0.11)
1-3 @ 5.85% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 2.89% (+0.10)
Other @ 10.54% (-0.17)
Total : 57.15%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Sep 14, 2025 4.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 15, 2025 3.05am
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Cuauhtemoc
  • Luis Quinones 33' yellowcard
  • Juan Fedorco 87' yellowcard
  • Franco Moyano 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Jesus Gallardo 15'
  • goal Paulinho 57'
  • goal Alexis Vega 62'
  • yellowcard Franco Romero 68'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Oct 23, 2024 4.05am
5
0
HT : 4 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Federico Pereira 15' goal
  • Federico Pereira 15' goal
  • Luan Garcia 29' yellowcard
  • Luan Garcia 29' yellowcard
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Federico Pereira 45' yellowcard
  • Federico Pereira 45' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 52' goal
  • Alexis Vega 52' goal
  • Paulinho 56' goal
  • Paulinho 56' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+4' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+4' goal
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jan 27, 2024 1.00am
1
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Cuauhtemoc
  • Fernando Navarro 23' goal
  • Fernando Navarro 23' goal
  • Miguel Sansores 41' yellowcard
  • Miguel Sansores 41' yellowcard
  • Diego de Buen 54' yellowcard
  • Diego de Buen 54' yellowcard
  • Kevin Velasco 62' yellowcard
  • Kevin Velasco 62' yellowcard
  • goal Robert Morales 45'+3'
  • goal Robert Morales 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 56'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 56'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 63'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 63'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 73'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 74'
Liga MX Gameweek 15
Nov 1, 2023 1.00am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Maximiliano Araujo 31' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Araujo 31' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 75' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 76' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 76' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Diego de Buen 45'
  • yellowcard Diego de Buen 45'
  • goal Guillermo Martinez 78'
  • goal Guillermo Martinez 78'
  • yellowcard Carlos Baltazar 89'
  • yellowcard Carlos Baltazar 89'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Apr 8, 2023 2.05am
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Cuauhtémoc
  • Facundo Waller 75' goal
  • goal Edgar Lopez 8'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 15'