Liga MX Gameweek 4
Jan 31, 2026 1.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Cuauhtémoc
  • Kevin Velasco 46' yellowcard
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 46' yellowcard
  • Alonso Ramírez Jiménez 46' yellowcard
  • Jose Rodrigo Pachuca Martinez 69' yellowcard
  • Jose Rodrigo Pachuca Martinez 70' yellowcard
  • Miguel Ramirez Perez 78' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Sebastian Cordova 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Franco Andres Rossi Donazar 61'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 80'
  • yellowcard Everardo Lopez 80'
  • yellowcard Jorge Roberto Díaz Price 83'

Puebla vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Puebla

All competitions
Last game
Jan 18, 2026 3.05am
Cruz Azul 1 - 0 Puebla
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Esteban Lozano

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Jan 18, 2026 1.00am
Tigres 0 - 0 Toluca
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Helinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 57.76%. A draw has a probability of 22.21% and a win for Puebla has a probability of 20.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.73%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.51%) , while for a Puebla win it is 1-0 (6.24%).

Result

Puebla 20.03%
Draw 22.21%
Toluca 57.76%

Both Teams to Score: 

49.13% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.38%
Under 1.5 24.62%
Over 2.5 51.01% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 48.99% (+0.06)
Over 3.5 29.05% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 70.95% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 17.22% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 82.78% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Puebla 21.86%
Draw 36.37%
Toluca 41.77%

Team To Score First

Puebla 31.72% (-0.02)
No Goal 6.78% (+0.03)
Toluca 61.5% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 57.13%
Equal 8 11.06%
Under 8 31.81%
Over 9 45.91%
Equal 9 11.22%
Under 9 42.87%
Over 10.5 35.43%
Under 10.5 64.57%

Puebla Goals

Over 1.5 21.53% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 78.47% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 6.32% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 93.68% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 1.62%
Under 3.5 98.38%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 81.34% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 18.66% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 52.58% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 47.42% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 26.19% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 73.81% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 10.71%
Under 3.5 89.29%

Score analysis

Puebla 20.04%
Draw 22.22%
Toluca 57.76%
Puebla
1-0 @ 6.24%
2-1 @ 4.97%
2-0 @ 3.11% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 1.66%
3-2 @ 1.51%
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 20.04%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.51% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 6.78% (+0.03)
2-2 @ 4.33% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 22.22%
Toluca
0-1 @ 11.62%
0-2 @ 10.73% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 9.82%
0-3 @ 6.23%
1-3 @ 5.86%
2-3 @ 2.8% (-0.02)
Other @ 10.7%
Total : 57.76%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Sep 14, 2025 4.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 15, 2025 3.05am
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Cuauhtemoc
  • Luis Quinones 33' yellowcard
  • Juan Fedorco 87' yellowcard
  • Franco Moyano 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Jesus Gallardo 15'
  • goal Paulinho 57'
  • goal Alexis Vega 62'
  • yellowcard Franco Romero 68'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Oct 23, 2024 4.05am
5
0
HT : 4 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Federico Pereira 15' goal
  • Federico Pereira 15' goal
  • Luan Garcia 29' yellowcard
  • Luan Garcia 29' yellowcard
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Federico Pereira 45' yellowcard
  • Federico Pereira 45' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 52' goal
  • Alexis Vega 52' goal
  • Paulinho 56' goal
  • Paulinho 56' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+4' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+4' goal
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jan 27, 2024 1.00am
1
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Cuauhtemoc
  • Fernando Navarro 23' goal
  • Fernando Navarro 23' goal
  • Miguel Sansores 41' yellowcard
  • Miguel Sansores 41' yellowcard
  • Diego de Buen 54' yellowcard
  • Diego de Buen 54' yellowcard
  • Kevin Velasco 62' yellowcard
  • Kevin Velasco 62' yellowcard
  • goal Robert Morales 45'+3'
  • goal Robert Morales 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 56'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 56'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 63'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 63'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 73'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 74'
Liga MX Gameweek 15
Nov 1, 2023 1.00am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Maximiliano Araujo 31' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Araujo 31' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 75' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 76' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 76' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Diego de Buen 45'
  • yellowcard Diego de Buen 45'
  • goal Guillermo Martinez 78'
  • goal Guillermo Martinez 78'
  • yellowcard Carlos Baltazar 89'
  • yellowcard Carlos Baltazar 89'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Apr 8, 2023 2.05am
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Cuauhtémoc
  • Facundo Waller 75' goal
  • goal Edgar Lopez 8'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 15'