Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jan 18, 2026 1.00am
0
0
LIVE Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Tigres vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Tigres

All competitions
Last game
Jan 15, 2026 3.06am
Tigres 0 - 1 Pumas
Goals scored
46
Top scorer
Juan Brunetta

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Jan 15, 2026 3.10am
Toluca 3 - 1 Santos Laguna
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Helinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Tigres win with a probability of 45.71%. A win for Toluca has a probability of 28.56% and a draw has a probability of 25.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Toluca win is 0-1 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.03%).

Result

Tigres 45.71% (+0.08)
Draw 25.73% (-0.33)
Toluca 28.56% (+0.24)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.2% (+0.43)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.18% (+0.47)
Under 1.5 24.82% (-0.47)
Over 2.5 51.04% (+0.18)
Under 2.5 48.96% (-0.18)
Over 3.5 28.32% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 71.68% (-0.27)
Over 4.5 15.76% (+0.09)
Under 4.5 84.24% (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Tigres 38.07% (+2.47)
Draw 38.84% (-1.70)
Toluca 23.09% (-0.77)

Team To Score First

Tigres 52.86% (+1.34)
No Goal 7.05% (-0.37)
Toluca 40.09% (-0.98)

Corners

Over 8 57.41% (+2.35)
Equal 8 11.56% (+0.03)
Under 8 31.04% (-2.36)
Over 9 45.67% (+2.13)
Equal 9 11.74% (+0.24)
Under 9 42.59% (-2.35)
Over 10.5 34.73% (+1.74)
Under 10.5 65.27% (-1.74)

Tigres Goals

Over 1.5 43.94% (+0.27)
Under 1.5 56.06% (-0.27)
Over 2.5 19.43% (+0.45)
Under 2.5 80.57% (-0.45)
Over 3.5 6.95% (+0.15)
Under 3.5 93.05% (-0.15)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 64.11% (+0.54)
Under 0.5 35.89% (-0.54)
Over 1.5 30.64% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 69.36% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 10.79% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 89.21% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 3.14% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 96.86% (+0.05)

Score analysis

Tigres 45.72%
Draw 25.73%
Toluca 28.56%
Tigres
1-0 @ 10.39% (-0.25)
2-1 @ 9.57% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 7.62% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.48% (+0.29)
3-0 @ 4.09% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 2.82% (-0.02)
Other @ 6.75% (+0.13)
Total : 45.72%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.03% (+0.04)
0-0 @ 7.05% (-0.37)
2-2 @ 5.36% (-0.10)
3-3 @ 1.09% (+0.09)
Other @ 0.2% (+0.03)
Total : 25.73%
Toluca
0-1 @ 7.39% (+0.16)
1-2 @ 7.2% (+0.11)
0-2 @ 4.47% (+0.19)
1-3 @ 2.73% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 1.96% (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.87% (-0.10)
Other @ 2.94% (-0.07)
Total : 28.56%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Dec 15, 2025 1.00am
2
1
HT : 1 1
ET
  • Federico Pereira 12' yellowcard
  • Helinho 40' goal
  • Santiago Simon 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 52' goal
  • Paulinho 69' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 117' yellowcard
  • goal Fernando Gorriaran 14'
  • yellowcard Angel Correa 64'
  • yellowcard Juan Brunetta 78'
  • yellowcard Fernando Gorriaran 96'
Liga MX
Dec 12, 2025 2.00am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jesus Angulo 17' yellowcard
  • Jesus Angulo 18' yellowcard
  • 18' yellowcard
  • Angel Correa 46' goal
  • Jesus Garza 63' yellowcard
  • Jose Garcia 63' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 23'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 24'
  • redcard Robert Morales 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 90'+2'
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jul 27, 2025 2.00am
3
4
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX
May 18, 2025 2.00am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 14' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 14' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 18' goal
  • Alexis Vega 18' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 37' yellowcard
  • Juan Dominguez 37' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 61' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 61' yellowcard
  • Edgar Lopez 79' goal
  • Edgar Lopez 79' goal
  • Alexis Vega 82' goal
  • Alexis Vega 82' goal
  • yellowcard Joaquim 16'
  • yellowcard Joaquim 16'
  • yellowcard Juan Sanchez 26'
  • yellowcard Juan Sanchez 26'
Liga MX
May 15, 2025 4.00am
1
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Universitario de Nuevo Leon
  • Nicolas Ibanez 19' goal
  • Nicolas Ibanez 19' goal
  • Jesus Angulo 89' yellowcard
  • Jesus Angulo 89' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Guzman 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Guzman 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Paulinho 45'+1'
  • goal Paulinho 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Juan Dominguez 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Juan Dominguez 90'+3'
Liga MX Gameweek 5
Feb 2, 2025 3.15am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Federico Pereira 31' yellowcard
  • Federico Pereira 31' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 33' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 33' yellowcard
  • Franco Romero 37' yellowcard
  • Franco Romero 37' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 90'+1' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Guido Pizarro 22'
  • yellowcard Guido Pizarro 22'
  • yellowcard Javier Aquino 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Javier Aquino 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Diego Lainez 90'+9'
  • yellowcard Jose Garcia 90'+9'
  • yellowcard Diego Lainez 90'+9'
  • yellowcard Jose Garcia 90'+9'