Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 47.82%. A win for Tigres had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Tigres win was 1-2 (6.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.