Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 47.82%. A win for Tigres had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Tigres win was 1-2 (6.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Tigres
47.82%	23.95%	28.22%

Both teams to score 58.03%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.16%

43.84%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.77%

66.22%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.52%

18.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.33%

49.67%

Tigres Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.18%

28.82%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.33%

64.67%

Score Analysis

Toluca 47.82%

Tigres 28.22%

Draw 23.95%

Toluca	Draw	Tigres
2-1 @ 9.45% 1-0 @ 8.99% 2-0 @ 7.59% 3-1 @ 5.32% 3-0 @ 4.27% 3-2 @ 3.31% 4-1 @ 2.25% 4-0 @ 1.8% 4-2 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.45% Total : 47.82%	1-1 @ 11.18% 2-2 @ 5.88% 0-0 @ 5.32% 3-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.95%	1-2 @ 6.96% 0-1 @ 6.62% 0-2 @ 4.12% 1-3 @ 2.89% 2-3 @ 2.44% 0-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 3.49% Total : 28.22%

Head to Head

Dec 12, 2025 2am

Tigres

1-0

Toluca

Correa (46')
Angulo (17'), Angulo (18'), (18'), Garza (63'), Garcia (63')

Gallardo (23'), Gallardo (24'), Pereira (90+2')
Morales (90+2')

Jul 27, 2025 2am

gameweek 3

May 18, 2025 2am

Vega (18' pen., 82', 18' pen., 82'), Lopez (79', 79')
Paulinho (14'), Paulinho (14'), Dominguez (37'), Dominguez (37'), Gallardo (61'), Gallardo (61')

Joaquim (16'), Joaquim (16'), Sanchez (26'), Sanchez (26')

May 15, 2025 4am

Tigres

1-1

Toluca

Ibanez (19', 19')
Angulo (89'), Angulo (89'), Guzman (90+3'), Guzman (90+3')

Paulinho (45+1', 45+1')
Dominguez (90+3'), Dominguez (90+3')

Feb 2, 2025 3.15am

gameweek 5

Toluca

1-0

Tigres