Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (7.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.

Result
Tigres	Draw	Toluca
44.24%	24.15%	31.61%

Both teams to score 59.45%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.11%

42.89%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.71%

65.29%

Tigres Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.42%

19.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.5%

51.5%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.92%

26.08%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.86%

61.14%

Score Analysis

Tigres 44.24%

Toluca 31.61%

Draw 24.14%

Tigres	Draw	Toluca
2-1 @ 9.13% 1-0 @ 8.33% 2-0 @ 6.79% 3-1 @ 4.96% 3-0 @ 3.69% 3-2 @ 3.33% 4-1 @ 2.02% 4-0 @ 1.51% 4-2 @ 1.36% Other @ 3.13% Total : 44.24%	1-1 @ 11.19% 2-2 @ 6.13% 0-0 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.14%	1-2 @ 7.52% 0-1 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 4.61% 1-3 @ 3.37% 2-3 @ 2.75% 0-3 @ 2.07% 1-4 @ 1.13% 2-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.38% Total : 31.61%

Head to Head

Jul 27, 2025 2am

gameweek 3

May 18, 2025 2am

Vega (18' pen., 82', 18' pen., 82'), Lopez (79', 79')
Paulinho (14'), Paulinho (14'), Dominguez (37'), Dominguez (37'), Gallardo (61'), Gallardo (61')

Joaquim (16'), Joaquim (16'), Sanchez (26'), Sanchez (26')

May 15, 2025 4am

Tigres

1-1

Toluca

Ibanez (19', 19')
Angulo (89'), Angulo (89'), Guzman (90+3'), Guzman (90+3')

Paulinho (45+1', 45+1')
Dominguez (90+3'), Dominguez (90+3')

Feb 2, 2025 3.15am

gameweek 5

Toluca

1-0

Tigres