Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (7.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.