Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jan 11, 2026 3.05am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio BBVA Bancomer
  • Luis Reyes 59' yellowcard
  • Roberto de la Rosa 59' yellowcard
  • Ricardo Chavez 60' yellowcard
  • Ricardo Chavez 61' yellowcard
  • Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa 71' yellowcard
  • 81' yellowcard
  • Cristian Isaac Reyes Bermúdez 81' yellowcard
  • Sergio Canales 88' yellowcard
  • goal Helinho 56'
  • yellowcard Jorge Roberto Díaz Price 67'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 74'
  • yellowcard Alek Alvarez 82'
  • yellowcard Jesus Angulo 82'

Monterrey vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Monterrey

All competitions
Last game
Dec 7, 2025 1.00am
Toluca 3 - 2 Monterrey
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
German Berterame

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Dec 15, 2025 1.00am
Toluca 2 - 1 Tigres
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Helinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 31.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (7.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result

Monterrey 42.31%
Draw 26.2%
Toluca 31.48%

Both Teams to Score: 

56.2%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.25%
Under 1.5 23.75%
Over 2.5 52.76%
Under 2.5 47.24%
Over 3.5 30.39%
Under 3.5 69.61%
Over 4.5 17.29%
Under 4.5 82.71%

First Half Winner

Monterrey 31.98%
Draw 40.24%
Toluca 27.79%

Team To Score First

Monterrey 48.74%
No Goal 6.73%
Toluca 44.53%

Corners

Over 8 56.42%
Equal 8 11.54%
Under 8 32.04%
Over 9 44.8%
Equal 9 11.63%
Under 9 43.58%
Over 10.5 34.03%
Under 10.5 65.97%

Monterrey Goals

Over 1.5 42.83%
Under 1.5 57.17%
Over 2.5 18.6%
Under 2.5 81.4%
Over 3.5 6.79%
Under 3.5 93.21%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 67.23%
Under 0.5 32.77%
Over 1.5 34.14%
Under 1.5 65.86%
Over 2.5 13.33%
Under 2.5 86.67%
Over 3.5 4.28%
Under 3.5 95.72%

Score analysis

Monterrey 42.33%
Draw 26.2%
Toluca 31.48%
Monterrey
1-0 @ 9.39%
2-1 @ 9.32%
2-0 @ 6.71%
3-1 @ 4.18%
3-0 @ 3.47%
3-2 @ 2.78%
Other @ 6.48%
Total : 42.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.95%
0-0 @ 6.73%
2-2 @ 5.83%
3-3 @ 1.38%
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 26.2%
Toluca
0-1 @ 7.64%
1-2 @ 7.37%
0-2 @ 4.83%
1-3 @ 3.09%
2-3 @ 2.37%
0-3 @ 2.21%
Other @ 3.97%
Total : 31.48%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Dec 7, 2025 1.00am
3
2
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Federico Pereira 19' goal
  • Paulinho 43' goal
  • Helinho 51' goal
  • Franco Romero 89' yellowcard
  • goal Sergio Ramos 58'
  • goal Roberto de la Rosa 75'
Liga MX
Dec 4, 2025 3.10am
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • German Berterame 39' goal
  • German Berterame 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Helinho 59'
  • yellowcard Diego Barbosa 74'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 89'
Liga MX
Sep 25, 2025 3.00am
6
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX
May 11, 2025 2.00am
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Diego Barbosa 12' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 12' yellowcard
  • Helinho 21' redcard
  • Helinho 21' redcard
  • Alexis Vega 30' goal
  • Alexis Vega 30' goal
  • Antonio Briseno 32' redcard
  • Antonio Briseno 32' redcard
  • Paulinho 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 68' goal
  • Paulinho 68' goal
  • Federico Pereira 80' yellowcard
  • Federico Pereira 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ricardo Chavez 19'
  • yellowcard Ricardo Chavez 19'
  • yellowcard Stefan Medina 41'
  • yellowcard Stefan Medina 41'
  • goal Roberto de la Rosa 48'
  • goal Roberto de la Rosa 48'
  • yellowcard Roberto de la Rosa 48'
  • yellowcard Roberto de la Rosa 48'
Liga MX
May 8, 2025 2.00am
3
2
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio BBVA Bancomer
  • Nelson Deossa 44' goal
  • Nelson Deossa 44' goal
  • Sergio Canales 50' goal
  • Sergio Canales 50' goal
  • Nelson Deossa 56' yellowcard
  • Nelson Deossa 56' yellowcard
  • German Berterame 69' goal
  • German Berterame 69' goal
  • Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa 82' yellowcard
  • Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa 82' yellowcard
  • goal Victor Guzman 17' (OG)
  • goal Victor Guzman 17' (OG)
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 56'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 56'
  • goal Luan Garcia 82'
  • goal Luan Garcia 82'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 90'+3'
Liga MX Gameweek 2
Jan 19, 2025 1.00am
1
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Helinho 11' goal
  • Helinho 11' goal
  • Diego Barbosa 83' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 83' yellowcard
  • goal Sergio Canales 47'
  • goal Sergio Canales 47'
  • yellowcard Hector Moreno 66'
  • yellowcard Hector Moreno 66'