Liga MX Gameweek 5
Feb 7, 2026 11.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Paulinho 41' goal
  • Pavel Perez 53' yellowcard
  • Pável Pérez 53' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 75' yellowcard
  • Sebastian Cordova 75' yellowcard
  • Sebastián Córdova 75' yellowcard
  • Franco Andres Rossi Donazar 88' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossi 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jorge Luis Rodarte Barragán 46'
  • yellowcard Osinachi Ebere 64'
  • yellowcard Amaury Morales Rosas 73'
  • yellowcard Luka Romero 73'
  • yellowcard Amaury Morales 73'
  • goal Jose Paradela 77'
  • goal José Paradela 77'
  • yellowcard Amaury Garcia 82'
  • yellowcard Amaury García 82'

Toluca vs Cruz Azul - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 1.00am
Puebla 0 - 0 Toluca
Goals scored
66
Top scorer
Paulinho

Cruz Azul

All competitions
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 3.06am
Juarez 3 - 4 Cruz Azul
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Jose Paradela

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.6%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 1-2 (7.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.

Result

Toluca 44.6%
Draw 25.67%
Cruz Azul 29.73%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.7% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.5%
Under 1.5 20.5%
Over 2.5 57.46% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 42.5%
Over 3.5 35.47% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 64.53% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 20.6% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 79.4% (+0.03)

First Half Winner

Toluca 33.61%
Draw 38.5%
Cruz Azul 27.89%

Team To Score First

Toluca 47.45%
No Goal 5.69% (+0.02)
Cruz Azul 46.86% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 50.58%
Equal 8 12.06%
Under 8 37.37%
Over 9 38.96%
Equal 9 11.61%
Under 9 49.42%
Over 10.5 28.69%
Under 10.5 71.31%

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 47.95% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 52.05% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 22.45%
Under 2.5 77.55%
Over 3.5 8.29%
Under 3.5 91.71%

Cruz Azul Goals

Over 0.5 67.51%
Under 0.5 32.49%
Over 1.5 36.13% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 63.87% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 14.4% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 85.6% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.5% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.5% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Toluca 44.61%
Draw 25.67%
Cruz Azul 29.73%
Toluca
2-1 @ 9.18%
1-0 @ 8.74%
2-0 @ 6.65%
3-1 @ 5.14%
3-0 @ 3.71% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.48%
Other @ 7.71%
Total : 44.61%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.98% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.59% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 5.69% (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.83% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 25.67%
Cruz Azul
1-2 @ 7.26%
0-1 @ 6.08% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 4.4% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 3.14%
2-3 @ 3.08%
0-3 @ 1.85%
Other @ 3.92% (-0.02)
Total : 29.73%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Aug 24, 2025 4.05am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Apr 20, 2025 2.05am
2
2
HT : 4 4
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Juan Dominguez 30' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 30' goal
  • Everardo Lopez 42' yellowcard
  • Everardo Lopez 42' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 43' goal
  • Jesus Gallardo 43' goal
  • Hector Herrera 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 45'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Gabriel Fernandez 2'
  • goal Gabriel Fernandez 2'
  • yellowcard Willer Ditta 33'
  • yellowcard Willer Ditta 33'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rotondi 37'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rotondi 37'
  • goal Carlos Rotondi 45'+3'
  • goal Carlos Rotondi 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Faravelli 63'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Faravelli 63'
Liga MX Gameweek 4
Jul 21, 2024 4.05am
1
1
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Azteca
  • Carlos Rodriguez 12' yellowcard
  • Carlos Rodriguez 12' yellowcard
  • Giorgos Giakoumakis 55' yellowcard
  • Giorgos Giakoumakis 55' yellowcard
  • Angel Sepulveda 90' goal
  • Angel Sepulveda 90' goal
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 31'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 31'
  • goal Maximiliano Araujo 38'
  • goal Maximiliano Araujo 38'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 42'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 42'
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Apr 28, 2024 2.00am
0
1
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • 3' goal
  • goal Willer Ditta 18'
  • goal Willer Ditta 18'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rodriguez 71'
  • yellowcard Carlos Rodriguez 71'
  • yellowcard Camilo Candido 73'
  • yellowcard Camilo Candido 73'
Liga MX Gameweek 2
Jul 9, 2023 12.50am
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Azteca
  • goal Tiago Volpi 37'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 37'
  • goal Juan Dominguez 90'+2'
  • goal Juan Dominguez 90'+2'
Liga MX Gameweek 6
Feb 12, 2023 6.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Maximiliano Araujo 32' goal
  • Maximiliano Araujo 54' goal
  • Sebastian Saucedo 87' goal
  • goal Carlos Rotondi 28'