Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.6%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 1-2 (7.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.