Liga MX Gameweek 7
Feb 22, 2026 1.00am
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Javier Ruiz 57' yellowcard
  • Emilio Lara 57' yellowcard
  • Tomás Badaloni 76' yellowcard
  • Kevin Gutiérrez 87' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossano 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 62'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 75'
  • goal Paulinho 79'
  • goal Paulinho 83'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 86'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Isaís 86'
  • yellowcard Luan 86'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Isaís 87'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 87'
  • yellowcard Luan 88'
  • goal Federico Pereira 90'+4'

Necaxa vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Necaxa

All competitions
Last game
Feb 15, 2026 1.06am
Juarez 1 - 2 Necaxa
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Javier Ruiz

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.05am
Toluca 1 - 0 Tijuana
Goals scored
67
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-0 (7.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.

Result

Necaxa 29.88% (-0.08)
Draw 25.76% (+0.08)
Toluca 44.35% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.26% (-0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.79% (-0.24)
Under 1.5 24.21% (+0.25)
Over 2.5 51.4% (-0.40)
Under 2.5 48.6% (+0.40)
Over 3.5 29.22% (-0.36)
Under 3.5 70.78% (+0.36)
Over 4.5 16.36% (-0.32)
Under 4.5 83.64% (+0.32)

First Half Winner

Necaxa 26.66% (+0.02)
Draw 42.47%
Toluca 30.87% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Necaxa 41.46% (-0.09)
No Goal 6.99% (+0.03)
Toluca 51.55% (+0.08)

Corners

Over 8 60.9% (-0.22)
Equal 8 11.24% (+0.05)
Under 8 27.87% (+0.20)
Over 9 49.16% (-0.25)
Equal 9 11.74% (+0.02)
Under 9 39.1% (+0.22)
Over 10.5 37.92% (-0.25)
Under 10.5 62.08% (+0.25)

Necaxa Goals

Over 1.5 31.67% (-0.27)
Under 1.5 68.33% (+0.27)
Over 2.5 11.75% (-0.28)
Under 2.5 88.25% (+0.29)
Over 3.5 3.43% (-0.14)
Under 3.5 96.57% (+0.14)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 75.72% (+0.13)
Under 0.5 24.28% (-0.13)
Over 1.5 43.8% (-0.28)
Under 1.5 56.2% (+0.28)
Over 2.5 18.85% (-0.22)
Under 2.5 81.15% (+0.22)
Over 3.5 6.65% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 93.35% (+0.15)

Score analysis

Necaxa 29.88%
Draw 25.76%
Toluca 44.35%
Necaxa
1-0 @ 7.65% (+0.09)
2-1 @ 7.24% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 4.37% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 2.91% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.45% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 1.92% (-0.09)
Other @ 3.34% (-0.10)
Total : 29.88%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.21% (+0.18)
0-0 @ 6.99% (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.43% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.07)
Other @ 0.09% (-0.06)
Total : 25.76%
Toluca
0-1 @ 9.56% (+0.18)
1-2 @ 9.25% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 7.82% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 4.51% (-0.05)
0-3 @ 3.77% (+0.05)
2-3 @ 2.88%
Other @ 6.56% (-0.11)
Total : 44.35%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 13, 2025 2.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 11
Mar 8, 2025 11.00pm
5
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 28' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 39' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseno 53' goal
  • Paulinho 45'+9' goal
  • Alexis Vega 56' goal
  • Alexis Vega 76' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 83' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 84' goal
  • Federico Pereira 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Diber Cambindo 11'
  • yellowcard Emilio Lara 35'
  • yellowcard Diber Cambindo 38'
  • goal Jose Paradela 44'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 78'
  • yellowcard Kevin Rosero 83'
  • yellowcard Ezequiel Unsain 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Oct 28, 2024 12.00am
1
3
HT : 0 4
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
Liga MX Gameweek 6
Feb 10, 2024 11.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Diber Cambindo 27' goal
  • Eduardo Fentanes 31' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 43' goal
  • Jose Paradela 73' yellowcard
  • Diber Cambindo 89' goal
  • goal Jean Meneses 6'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 30'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 58'
  • goal Tomas Belmonte 68'
  • goal Ezequiel Unsain 77' (OG)
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 2, 2023 7.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Apr 30, 2023 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Leonardo Fernandez 31' goal
  • Carlos Gonzalez 52' goal
  • Tiago Volpi 71' goal