Liga MX Gameweek 7
Feb 22, 2026 1.00am
Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Necaxa vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Necaxa

All competitions
Last game
Feb 15, 2026 1.06am
Juarez 1 - 2 Necaxa
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Julian Carranza

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 3.05am
Toluca 1 - 0 Tijuana
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Necaxa has a probability of 29.95% and a draw has a probability of 25.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Necaxa win is 1-0 (7.57%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.04%).

Result

Necaxa 29.95% (-0.06)
Draw 25.69% (-0.02)
Toluca 44.35% (+0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.44%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.06% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 23.94% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 51.79% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 48.21% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 29.58% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 70.42% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 16.68% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 83.32% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Necaxa 26.64%
Draw 42.47%
Toluca 30.89%

Team To Score First

Necaxa 41.55%
No Goal 6.97%
Toluca 51.48%

Corners

Over 8 61.12% (+0.11)
Equal 8 11.2%
Under 8 27.68% (-0.11)
Over 9 49.4% (+0.11)
Equal 9 11.72% (+0.01)
Under 9 38.88% (-0.11)
Over 10.5 38.17% (+0.10)
Under 10.5 61.83% (-0.10)

Necaxa Goals

Over 1.5 31.94% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 68.06% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 12.03% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 87.97% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 3.57% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.43% (+0.02)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 75.63% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 24.37% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 44.1% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 55.9% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 19.08% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 80.92% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 6.81% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 93.19% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Necaxa 29.95%
Draw 25.69%
Toluca 44.35%
Necaxa
1-0 @ 7.57%
2-1 @ 7.2% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 4.39% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 2.9%
3-2 @ 2.46%
3-0 @ 2% (-0.03)
Other @ 3.43% (-0.01)
Total : 29.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.04%
0-0 @ 6.97%
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.69%
Toluca
0-1 @ 9.39% (+0.04)
1-2 @ 9.28%
0-2 @ 7.84% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 4.56% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 3.73%
2-3 @ 2.88% (+0.01)
Other @ 6.67% (+0.04)
Total : 44.35%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 13, 2025 2.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 11
Mar 8, 2025 11.00pm
5
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 28' yellowcard
  • Hector Herrera 39' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseno 53' goal
  • Paulinho 45'+9' goal
  • Alexis Vega 56' goal
  • Alexis Vega 76' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 83' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 84' goal
  • Federico Pereira 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Diber Cambindo 11'
  • yellowcard Emilio Lara 35'
  • yellowcard Diber Cambindo 38'
  • goal Jose Paradela 44'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 78'
  • yellowcard Kevin Rosero 83'
  • yellowcard Ezequiel Unsain 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Oct 28, 2024 12.00am
1
3
HT : 0 4
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 77' yellowcard
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • Agustin Palavecino 90'+5' goal
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 19'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 25'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
  • goal Jesus Angulo 66'
Liga MX Gameweek 6
Feb 10, 2024 11.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Diber Cambindo 27' goal
  • Eduardo Fentanes 31' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 43' goal
  • Jose Paradela 73' yellowcard
  • Diber Cambindo 89' goal
  • goal Jean Meneses 6'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 30'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 58'
  • goal Tomas Belmonte 68'
  • goal Ezequiel Unsain 77' (OG)
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jul 2, 2023 7.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Apr 30, 2023 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Leonardo Fernandez 31' goal
  • Carlos Gonzalez 52' goal
  • Tiago Volpi 71' goal