Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Necaxa win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 34.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Necaxa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.41%) and 0-2 (5.24%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 2-1 (7.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.