Liga MX Gameweek 9
Mar 4, 2026 3.10am
Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Pumas vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Pumas

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.06am
Tijuana 1 - 1 Pumas
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Jordan Carrillo

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 11.00pm
Toluca 2 - 0 Guadalajara
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Pumas has a probability of 33.82% and a draw has a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Pumas win is 1-0 (9.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.98%).

Result

Pumas 33.82% (+1.11)
Draw 27.4% (+0.38)
Toluca 38.78% (-1.50)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.2% (-1.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.37% (-0.73)
Under 1.5 28.63% (+0.74)
Over 2.5 45.99% (-0.40)
Under 2.5 54.01% (+0.40)
Over 3.5 24.55% (-0.72)
Under 3.5 75.46% (+0.73)
Over 4.5 12.87% (-0.62)
Under 4.5 87.13% (+0.61)

First Half Winner

Pumas 30.94% (+1.43)
Draw 42.8% (-0.97)
Toluca 26.26% (-0.46)

Team To Score First

Pumas 46% (+1.04)
No Goal 8.45% (+0.17)
Toluca 45.55% (-1.20)

Corners

Over 8 50.77% (-1.34)
Equal 8 12.15% (+0.07)
Under 8 37.07% (+1.28)
Over 9 39.05% (-1.28)
Equal 9 11.72% (-0.07)
Under 9 49.23% (+1.34)
Over 10.5 28.68% (-1.11)
Under 10.5 71.32% (+1.10)

Pumas Goals

Over 1.5 32.39% (+0.79)
Under 1.5 67.61% (-0.80)
Over 2.5 11.54% (+0.79)
Under 2.5 88.46% (-0.80)
Over 3.5 3.36% (+0.17)
Under 3.5 96.64% (-0.18)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 70.71% (-0.95)
Under 0.5 29.29% (+0.94)
Over 1.5 36.31% (-1.74)
Under 1.5 63.69% (+1.74)
Over 2.5 14.09% (-1.07)
Under 2.5 85.91% (+1.07)
Over 3.5 4.4% (-0.57)
Under 3.5 95.6% (+0.57)

Score analysis

Pumas 33.83%
Draw 27.41%
Toluca 38.77%
Pumas
1-0 @ 9.7% (+0.25)
2-1 @ 7.9% (+0.16)
2-0 @ 5.61% (+0.07)
3-1 @ 3.03% (+0.23)
3-0 @ 2.25% (+0.36)
3-2 @ 2.05% (-0.05)
Other @ 3.29% (+0.13)
Total : 33.83%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.98% (+0.10)
0-0 @ 8.45% (+0.17)
2-2 @ 5.06% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.07% (+0.05)
Total : 27.41%
Toluca
0-1 @ 10.49% (+0.33)
1-2 @ 8.33% (-0.14)
0-2 @ 6.78% (-0.50)
1-3 @ 3.6% (-0.32)
0-3 @ 2.96% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 2.28% (-0.21)
Other @ 4.33% (-0.63)
Total : 38.77%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Aug 17, 2025 4.10am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 4
Jan 30, 2025 3.05am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Olimpico de Universitario
  • Pablo Bennevendo 53' yellowcard
  • Pablo Bennevendo 53' yellowcard
  • Pablo Bennevendo 61' goal
  • Pablo Bennevendo 61' goal
  • Adalberto Carrasquilla 64' yellowcard
  • Adalberto Carrasquilla 64' yellowcard
  • Ignacio Pussetto 74' yellowcard
  • Ignacio Pussetto 74' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 17'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 17'
  • goal Nathan Silva 51' (OG)
  • goal Nathan Silva 51' (OG)
Liga MX Gameweek 11
Oct 6, 2024 2.00am
1
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 24' goal
  • Paulinho 24' goal
  • Alexis Vega 72' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 72' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Cesar Huerta 1'
  • goal Cesar Huerta 1'
  • yellowcard Lisandro Magallan 39'
  • yellowcard Lisandro Magallan 39'
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 18, 2024 1.00am
3
0
HT : 4 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Alexis Vega 14' goal
  • Alexis Vega 14' goal
  • Tiago Volpi 36' goal
  • Tiago Volpi 36' goal
  • Claudio Baeza 75' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 75' yellowcard
  • Juan Dominguez 77' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 77' goal
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Lopez 39'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Lopez 39'
  • yellowcard Nathan Silva 40'
  • yellowcard Nathan Silva 40'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Suarez 64'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Suarez 64'
Liga MX Gameweek 4
Aug 19, 2023 4.00am
1
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Olimpico de Universitario
  • Cesar Huerta 24' goal
  • Cesar Huerta 24' goal
  • Cesar Huerta 81' yellowcard
  • Cesar Huerta 81' yellowcard
  • Santiago Trigos 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Jose Caicedo 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Santiago Trigos 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Jose Caicedo 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Gil Alcala 90'+10' yellowcard
  • Gil Alcala 90'+10' yellowcard
  • Carlos Gutierrez 90'+14' yellowcard
  • Carlos Gutierrez 90'+14' yellowcard
  • goal Juan Dominguez 15'
  • goal Juan Dominguez 15'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 38'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 38'
  • yellowcard Tomas Belmonte 81'
  • yellowcard Tomas Belmonte 81'
  • yellowcard Jesus Pinuelas 90'+7'
  • yellowcard Jesus Pinuelas 90'+7'
  • redcard Jesus Pinuelas 90'+10'
  • redcard Jesus Pinuelas 90'+10'
Liga MX Gameweek 15
Apr 16, 2023 7.00pm
3
1
HT : 3 1
FT Estadio Olímpico de Universitario
  • Juan Dinenno 1' goal
  • Cesar Huerta 38' goal
  • Eduardo Salvio 44' goal
  • goal Carlos Gonzalez 31'