Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Diego win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Diego win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.