Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 22, 2026 11.00pm
Estadio Hidalgo

Pachuca vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Pachuca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 14, 2026 11.00pm
Atletico San Luis 1 - 1 Pachuca
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Salomon Rondon

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 1.00am
Toluca 1 - 1 Atlas
Goals scored
66
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Pachuca has a probability of 35.39% and a draw has a probability of 25.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.52%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Pachuca win is 2-1 (8.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.85%).

Result

Pachuca 35.39%
Draw 25.64%
Toluca 38.97%

Both Teams to Score: 

57.24% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.33% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 22.67% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 54.37% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 45.63% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 31.89% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 68.11% (+0.07)
Over 4.5 18.31% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 81.69% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Pachuca 30.1%
Draw 42.6%
Toluca 27.3%

Team To Score First

Pachuca 46.71%
No Goal 6.23% (+0.02)
Toluca 47.06% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 59.05%
Equal 8 11.51%
Under 8 29.44%
Over 9 47.2%
Equal 9 11.86%
Under 9 40.95%
Over 10.5 36.02%
Under 10.5 63.98%

Pachuca Goals

Over 1.5 37.98% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 62.02% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 15.63% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 84.37% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 5.32% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 94.68% (+0.02)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 72.97%
Under 0.5 27.03%
Over 1.5 40.72% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 59.28% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 17.6% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 82.4% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 6.18% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 93.82% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Pachuca 35.39%
Draw 25.65%
Toluca 38.97%
Pachuca
2-1 @ 8.26% (+0.01)
1-0 @ 7.93% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 5.21%
3-1 @ 3.62% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.7%
3-0 @ 2.59% (+0.01)
Other @ 5.08% (-0.01)
Total : 35.39%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.85%
0-0 @ 6.23% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.93% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 25.65%
Toluca
1-2 @ 8.6% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 8.52% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 5.89%
1-3 @ 4.04%
0-3 @ 3.03% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.95%
Other @ 5.94% (-0.02)
Total : 38.97%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Oct 27, 2025 1.00am
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Mar 29, 2025 11.00pm
3
2
HT : 3 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Jesus Angulo 13' goal
  • Jesus Angulo 38' goal
  • Alexis Vega 45'+3' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 54' yellowcard
  • Pau Lopez 55' yellowcard
  • Victor Arteaga 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luis Rodriguez 9'
  • goal Pau Lopez 62' (OG)
  • goal Pedro Pedraza 86'
Liga MX Gameweek 8
Sep 18, 2024 2.00am
2
2
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard Frankie Amaya 90'+1'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Mar 31, 2024 3.00am
2
3
HT : 2 6
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 32' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Elias Montiel 83' yellowcard
  • Elias Montiel 84' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
Liga MX Gameweek 7
Sep 3, 2023 7.00pm
5
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Tiago Volpi 26' goal
  • Maximiliano Araujo 29' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 53' goal
  • Pedro Raul 57' goal
  • Pedro Raul 63' goal
  • Jesus Venegas 68' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Miguel Rodriguez 18'
  • yellowcard Guillermo Almada 19'
  • yellowcard Carlos Moreno 24'
Liga MX Gameweek 8
Feb 20, 2023 3.05am
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Javier Lopez 79' goal
  • goal Edgar Lopez 11'
  • goal Camilo Sanvezzo 90'+2'