Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Pachuca had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Pachuca win was 2-1 (8.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.