Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 51.21%. A win for Cancún had a probability of 24.92% and a draw had a probability of 23.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.98%) and 0-2 (8.48%). The likeliest Cancún win was 2-1 (6.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.