Liga MX
May 11, 2026 12.00am
Estadio Hidalgo

Pachuca vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Pachuca

All competitions
Last game
May 4, 2026 2.15am
Toluca 0 - 1 Pachuca
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Salomon Rondon

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
May 4, 2026 2.15am
Toluca 0 - 1 Pachuca
Goals scored
76
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Pachuca has a probability of 34.14% and a draw has a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.69%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Pachuca win is 2-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.8%).

Result

Pachuca 34.14%
Draw 25.2%
Toluca 40.63%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.1% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.05% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 22.95% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 54.05%
Under 2.5 45.95%
Over 3.5 30.49%
Under 3.5 69.51%
Over 4.5 16.99% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 83.01% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Pachuca 27.09%
Draw 42.03%
Toluca 30.88%

Team To Score First

Pachuca 45.95%
No Goal 6.15%
Toluca 47.9%

Corners

Over 8 56.99%
Equal 8 12.08%
Under 8 30.94%
Over 9 44.74%
Equal 9 12.25%
Under 9 43.01%
Over 10.5 33.4%
Under 10.5 66.6%

Pachuca Goals

Over 1.5 36.34% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 63.66% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 13.96%
Under 2.5 86.04%
Over 3.5 4.35%
Under 3.5 95.65%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 73.95% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 26.05% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 41.62% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 58.38% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 17.78%
Under 2.5 82.22%
Over 3.5 6.05%
Under 3.5 93.95%

Score analysis

Pachuca 34.14%
Draw 25.19%
Toluca 40.64%
Pachuca
2-1 @ 8.38%
1-0 @ 8.08%
2-0 @ 5.08% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.46% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.48%
3-2 @ 2.43% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.23%
Total : 34.14%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.8% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.15%
2-2 @ 5.88%
3-3 @ 1.24%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.19%
Toluca
1-2 @ 9.42%
0-1 @ 8.69%
0-2 @ 6.11%
1-3 @ 4.17%
0-3 @ 3.28%
2-3 @ 3.04%
Other @ 5.93%
Total : 40.64%

Head to Head

Liga MX
May 4, 2026 2.15am
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Paulinho 60' yellowcard
  • Nicolás Castro 60' yellowcard
  • Santiago Simón 60' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossi 75' yellowcard
  • Mauricio Isaís 82' yellowcard
  • goal Enner Valencia 8'
  • yellowcard Alexéi Domínguez 64'
  • yellowcard René López Aburto 75'
  • yellowcard Jorge Ernesto Berlanga Vázquez 90'
  • yellowcard Sergio Lenin Rodriguez 90'
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 22, 2026 11.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Enner Valencia 57' yellowcard
  • Elías Montiel 67' yellowcard
  • Elías Montiel 72' goal
  • Gael Arturo Álvarez Montiel 84' yellowcard
  • Cristóbal Saúl Alfaro Avilés 84' yellowcard
  • Luis Enrique Quiñones García 84' yellowcard
  • goal Franco Romero 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Fernando Arce 57'
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 74'
  • yellowcard Diego Barbosa 74'
  • yellowcard Diego Barbosa 75'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 90'+1'
Liga MX
Oct 27, 2025 1.00am
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Mar 29, 2025 11.00pm
3
2
HT : 3 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Jesus Angulo 13' goal
  • Jesus Angulo 38' goal
  • Alexis Vega 45'+3' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 54' yellowcard
  • Pau Lopez 55' yellowcard
  • Victor Arteaga 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luis Rodriguez 9'
  • goal Pau Lopez 62' (OG)
  • goal Pedro Pedraza 86'
Liga MX Gameweek 8
Sep 18, 2024 2.00am
2
2
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard Frankie Amaya 90'+1'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Mar 31, 2024 3.00am
2
3
HT : 2 6
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 32' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Elias Montiel 83' yellowcard
  • Elias Montiel 84' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'