May 4, 2026 2.15am

0

1

HT : 0 1

FT Estadio Nemesio Díez

Paulinho 60'
Nicolás Castro 60'
Santiago Simón 60'
Franco Rossi 75'
Mauricio Isaís 82'

Enner Valencia 8'
Alexéi Domínguez 64'
René López Aburto 75'
Jorge Ernesto Berlanga Vázquez 90'
Sergio Lenin Rodriguez 90'

Toluca vs Pachuca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions

L
W
L
L
W
D

Liga MX

W
L
L
D
L
D

Last game

Apr 26, 2026 2.05am

Toluca 4 - 1 Club Leon

Goals scored

76

Top scorer

Paulinho

Pachuca

All competitions

L
L
W
W
W
D

Liga MX

L
L
W
W
W
D

Last game

Apr 26, 2026 12.00am

Pachuca 0 - 2 Pumas

Goals scored

51

Top scorer

Salomon Rondon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 60.22%. A draw had a probability of 21.52% and a win for Pachuca had a probability of 18.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.57%) and 2-0 (10.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%) , while for a Pachuca win it was 0-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.

Result

Toluca 60.22% ▲ (+1.15)

Draw 21.52% ▼ (-0.75)

Pachuca 18.27% ▼ (-0.41)

Both Teams to Score:

53.59% ▲ (+0.17)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.72% ▼ (-0.08)

Under 1.5 21.28% ▲ (+0.08)

Over 2.5 55.81% ▼ (-0.12)

Under 2.5 44.19% ▲ (+0.15)

Over 3.5 32.58% ▼ (-1.32)

Under 3.5 67.42% ▲ (+1.32)

Over 4.5 20.21% ▼ (-0.62)

Under 4.5 79.79% ▲ (+0.63)

First Half Winner

Toluca 45.35% ▼ (-1.20)

Draw 37.42% ▲ (+0.79)

Pachuca 17.23% ▲ (+0.43)

Team To Score First

Toluca 64.8% ▲ (+1.09)

No Goal 5.54% ▼ (-0.06)

Pachuca 29.66% ▼ (-1.04)

Corners

Over 8 52.19% ▼ (-0.36)

Equal 8 12.33% ▲ (+0.03)

Under 8 35.48% ▲ (+0.33)

Over 9 40.15% ▼ (-0.36)

Equal 9 12.03%

Under 9 47.81% ▲ (+0.36)

Over 10.5 29.41% ▼ (-0.33)

Under 10.5 70.59% ▲ (+0.33)

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 56.81% ▲ (+0.20)

Under 1.5 43.19% ▼ (-0.20)

Over 2.5 29.88% ▼ (-0.14)

Under 2.5 70.12% ▲ (+0.14)

Over 3.5 12.89% ▼ (-0.08)

Under 3.5 87.11% ▲ (+0.07)

Pachuca Goals

Over 0.5 54.41% ▼ (-0.62)

Under 0.5 45.59% ▲ (+0.62)

Over 1.5 22.17% ▼ (-0.92)

Under 1.5 77.83% ▲ (+0.93)

Over 2.5 6.4% ▼ (-0.78)

Under 2.5 93.6% ▲ (+0.79)

Over 3.5 1.46% ▼ (-0.45)

Under 3.5 98.54% ▲ (+0.46)

Score analysis

Toluca 60.21%

Draw 21.52%

Pachuca 18.27%

Toluca

1-0 @ 10.58% ▲ (+0.24)

2-1 @ 10.57% ▲ (+0.64)

2-0 @ 10.06% ▲ (+0.14)

3-0 @ 6.53% ▲ (+0.23)

3-1 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.15)

3-2 @ 3.44%

Other @ 12.88% ▲ (+0.10)

Total : 60.21%

Draw

1-1 @ 10.36% ▼ (-0.08)

0-0 @ 5.54% ▼ (-0.06)

2-2 @ 4.74% ▼ (-0.31)

Other @ 0.01% ▼ (-0.16)

Total : 21.52%

Pachuca

0-1 @ 5.16% ▼ (-0.10)

1-2 @ 5.1% ▲ (+0.18)

0-2 @ 2.49% ▼ (-0.01)

2-3 @ 1.56% ▼ (-0.13)

1-3 @ 1.48% ▼ (-0.23)

0-3 @ 1.03%

Other @ 1.45% ▼ (-0.30)

Total : 18.27%

Head to Head

Mar 22, 2026 11.00pm

1

1

HT : 0 1

FT Estadio Hidalgo

Enner Valencia 57'
Elías Montiel 67'
Elías Montiel 72'
Gael Arturo Álvarez Montiel 84'
Cristóbal Saúl Alfaro Avilés 84'
Luis Enrique Quiñones García 84'

Franco Romero 45'+1'
Fernando Arce 57'
Jorge Díaz 74'
Diego Barbosa 74'
Diego Barbosa 75'
Sebastián Córdova 90'+1'

Oct 27, 2025 1.00am

2

2

HT : 0 0

FT

Mar 29, 2025 11.00pm

3

2

HT : 3 0

FT Estadio Nemesio Diez

Jesus Angulo 13'
Jesus Angulo 38'
Alexis Vega 45'+3'
Marcel Ruiz 54'
Pau Lopez 55'
Victor Arteaga 83'

Luis Rodriguez 9'
Pau Lopez 62' (OG)
Pedro Pedraza 86'

Sep 18, 2024 2.00am

2

2

HT : 0 3

FT Estadio Hidalgo

Jorge Berlanga 41'
Jorge Berlanga 41'
Jorge Berlanga 41'
Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57'
Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57'
Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57'
Owen Gonzalez 68'
Owen Gonzalez 68'
Owen Gonzalez 68'
Jorge Berlanga 81'
Jorge Berlanga 81'
Jorge Berlanga 81'

Claudio Baeza 37'
Claudio Baeza 37'
Claudio Baeza 37'
Alexis Vega 45'
Alexis Vega 45'
Alexis Vega 45'
Victor Arteaga 55'
Victor Arteaga 55'
Victor Arteaga 55'
Anderson Duarte 79'
Anderson Duarte 79'
Anderson Duarte 79'
Isaias Violante 90'
<TBD> 90'
Isaias Violante 90'
<TBD> 90'
Alexis Vega 90'
Isaias Violante 90'
Frankie Amaya 90'+1'

Mar 31, 2024 3.00am

2

3

HT : 2 6

FT Estadio Hidalgo

Miguel Rodriguez 3'
Miguel Rodriguez 3'
Sergio Barreto 31'
Sergio Barreto 31'
Guillermo Almada 32'
Salomon Rondon 36'
Salomon Rondon 36'
Carlos Sanchez 39'
Carlos Sanchez 39'
Bryan Gonzalez 82'
Bryan Gonzalez 82'
Elias Montiel 83'
Elias Montiel 84'
Guillermo Almada 90'+2'
Luis Rodriguez 90'+3'
Luis Rodriguez 90'+3'

Brian Garcia 13'
Brian Garcia 13'
Tiago Volpi 34'
Tiago Volpi 34'
Juan Escobar 36'
Juan Escobar 36'
Alexis Vega 44'
Alexis Vega 44'
Carlos Orrantia 75'
Carlos Orrantia 75'

Sep 3, 2023 7.00pm

5

0

HT : 2 0

FT Estadio Nemesio Diez

Tiago Volpi 26'
Maximiliano Araujo 29'
Juan Dominguez 53'
Pedro Raul 57'
Pedro Raul 63'
Jesus Venegas 68'

Miguel Rodriguez 18'
Guillermo Almada 19'
Carlos Moreno 24'

Form Data

Los Angeles 2 - 1 Toluca

Toluca 4 - 1 Club Leon

Mazatlan 4 - 3 Toluca

America 2 - 1 Toluca

LA Galaxy 0 - 3 Toluca

Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis

Pachuca 0 - 2 Pumas

Tijuana 3 - 1 Pachuca

Monterrey 1 - 3 Pachuca

Pachuca 4 - 2 Santos Laguna

Cruz Azul 1 - 2 Pachuca

Pachuca 1 - 1 Toluca