Liga MX
May 4, 2026 2.15am
Estadio Nemesio Díez

Toluca vs Pachuca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 2.05am
Toluca 4 - 1 Club Leon
Goals scored
76
Top scorer
Paulinho

Pachuca

All competitions
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 12.00am
Pachuca 0 - 2 Pumas
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Salomon Rondon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 59.07%. A draw has a probability of 22.26% and a win for Pachuca has a probability of 18.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.43%) , while for a Pachuca win it is 0-1 (5.26%).

Result

Toluca 59.07% (+0.04)
Draw 22.26% (+0.08)
Pachuca 18.67% (-0.14)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.43% (-0.50)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.79% (-0.34)
Under 1.5 21.21% (+0.34)
Over 2.5 55.93% (-0.50)
Under 2.5 44.04% (+0.47)
Over 3.5 33.89% (-0.54)
Under 3.5 66.11% (+0.54)
Over 4.5 20.83% (-0.43)
Under 4.5 79.17% (+0.43)

First Half Winner

Toluca 46.55%
Draw 36.64%
Pachuca 16.81%

Team To Score First

Toluca 63.71% (-0.07)
No Goal 5.6% (+0.10)
Pachuca 30.69% (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 52.54%
Equal 8 12.3%
Under 8 35.16%
Over 9 40.51%
Equal 9 12.03%
Under 9 47.46%
Over 10.5 29.74%
Under 10.5 70.26%

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 56.62% (-0.29)
Under 1.5 43.38% (+0.29)
Over 2.5 30.01% (-0.30)
Under 2.5 69.99% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 12.96% (-0.20)
Under 3.5 87.04% (+0.21)

Pachuca Goals

Over 0.5 55.02% (-0.26)
Under 0.5 44.98% (+0.26)
Over 1.5 23.09% (-0.34)
Under 1.5 76.91% (+0.33)
Over 2.5 7.18% (-0.20)
Under 2.5 92.82% (+0.19)
Over 3.5 1.91% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 98.09% (+0.08)

Score analysis

Toluca 59.06%
Draw 22.25%
Pachuca 18.69%
Toluca
1-0 @ 10.35% (+0.16)
2-1 @ 9.94%
2-0 @ 9.93% (+0.11)
3-0 @ 6.31% (+0.05)
3-1 @ 6.3% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.44% (-0.07)
Other @ 12.79% (-0.20)
Total : 59.06%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.43% (+0.07)
0-0 @ 5.6% (+0.10)
2-2 @ 5.05% (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.17% (-0.01)
Total : 22.25%
Pachuca
0-1 @ 5.26% (+0.05)
1-2 @ 4.92% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 2.5%
1-3 @ 1.71% (-0.04)
2-3 @ 1.69% (-0.06)
Other @ 1.74% (-0.07)
Total : 18.69%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 22, 2026 11.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Enner Valencia 57' yellowcard
  • Elías Montiel 67' yellowcard
  • Elías Montiel 72' goal
  • Gael Arturo Álvarez Montiel 84' yellowcard
  • Cristóbal Saúl Alfaro Avilés 84' yellowcard
  • Luis Enrique Quiñones García 84' yellowcard
  • goal Franco Romero 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Fernando Arce 57'
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 74'
  • yellowcard Diego Barbosa 74'
  • yellowcard Diego Barbosa 75'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 90'+1'
Liga MX
Oct 27, 2025 1.00am
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Mar 29, 2025 11.00pm
3
2
HT : 3 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Jesus Angulo 13' goal
  • Jesus Angulo 38' goal
  • Alexis Vega 45'+3' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 54' yellowcard
  • Pau Lopez 55' yellowcard
  • Victor Arteaga 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luis Rodriguez 9'
  • goal Pau Lopez 62' (OG)
  • goal Pedro Pedraza 86'
Liga MX Gameweek 8
Sep 18, 2024 2.00am
2
2
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard Frankie Amaya 90'+1'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Mar 31, 2024 3.00am
2
3
HT : 2 6
FT Estadio Hidalgo
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 32' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Elias Montiel 83' yellowcard
  • Elias Montiel 84' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
Liga MX Gameweek 7
Sep 3, 2023 7.00pm
5
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Tiago Volpi 26' goal
  • Maximiliano Araujo 29' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 53' goal
  • Pedro Raul 57' goal
  • Pedro Raul 63' goal
  • Jesus Venegas 68' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Miguel Rodriguez 18'
  • yellowcard Guillermo Almada 19'
  • yellowcard Carlos Moreno 24'