Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (5.87%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 (8.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.