CONCACAF Champions League
Apr 16, 2026 2.00am
Dignity Health Sports Park

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Los Angeles Galaxy

All competitions
CONCACAF Champions League
Last game
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
Toluca 4 - 2 LA Galaxy

Toluca

All competitions
CONCACAF Champions League
Last game
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
Toluca 4 - 2 LA Galaxy

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy has a probability of 36.72% and a draw has a probability of 24.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.41%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win is 1-0 (8.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.12%).

Result

Los Angeles Galaxy 36.72%
Draw 24.41%
Toluca 38.87%

Both Teams to Score: 

55.82%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.5%
Under 1.5 22.5%
Over 2.5 54.9%
Under 2.5 45.1%
Over 3.5 32.52%
Under 3.5 67.48%
Over 4.5 18.97%
Under 4.5 81.03%

First Half Winner

Los Angeles Galaxy 32.34%
Draw 40.64%
Toluca 27.02%

Team To Score First

Los Angeles Galaxy 50.16%
No Goal 5.97%
Toluca 43.87%

Corners

Over 8 56.14%
Equal 8 11.53%
Under 8 32.32%
Over 9 44.55%
Equal 9 11.59%
Under 9 43.86%
Over 10.5 33.84%
Under 10.5 66.16%

Los Angeles Galaxy Goals

Over 1.5 38.84%
Under 1.5 61.16%
Over 2.5 16.53%
Under 2.5 83.47%
Over 3.5 5.91%
Under 3.5 94.09%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 72.02%
Under 0.5 27.98%
Over 1.5 40.63%
Under 1.5 59.37%
Over 2.5 17.5%
Under 2.5 82.5%
Over 3.5 6.17%
Under 3.5 93.83%

Score analysis

Los Angeles Galaxy 36.73%
Draw 24.42%
Toluca 38.88%
Los Angeles Galaxy
1-0 @ 8.15%
2-1 @ 8.12%
2-0 @ 5.48%
3-1 @ 3.74%
3-2 @ 2.83%
3-0 @ 2.71%
Other @ 5.7%
Total : 36.73%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.12%
0-0 @ 5.97%
2-2 @ 5.78%
3-3 @ 1.34%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.42%
Toluca
1-2 @ 8.54%
0-1 @ 8.41%
0-2 @ 5.98%
1-3 @ 4.04%
0-3 @ 3.02%
2-3 @ 2.93%
Other @ 5.96%
Total : 38.88%

Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions League
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
4
2
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Nicolás Castro 12' goal
  • Paulinho 43' goal
  • Luan 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseño 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Everardo del Villar 70' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 73' goal
  • Mauricio Isaís 84' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossi 84' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 84' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 85' goal
  • Diego Barbosa 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marco Reus 58'
  • yellowcard Justin Haak 59'
  • goal Gabriel Pec 66'
  • yellowcard Julián Aude 72'
  • goal Marco Reus 77'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Cuevas 80'
  • yellowcard Lucas Sanabria 80'