CONCACAF Champions League
Apr 16, 2026 2.00am
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Dignity Health Sports Park
  • E. Wynder 46' yellowcard
  • Joseph Paintsil 68' yellowcard
  • R. Ramos 68' yellowcard
  • Lucas Sanabria 69' yellowcard
  • I. Parente 73' yellowcard
  • I. Parente 74' yellowcard
  • 74' yellowcard
  • goal Jesús Gallardo 10'
  • goal Paulinho 58'
  • goal Paulinho 64'
  • yellowcard Pável Pérez 64'
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 73'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 73'
  • yellowcard 73'
  • yellowcard Antonio Briseño 82'
  • yellowcard Antonio Briseño 83'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 83'

Los Angeles Galaxy vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Los Angeles Galaxy

All competitions
CONCACAF Champions League
Last game
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
Toluca 4 - 2 LA Galaxy

Toluca

All competitions
CONCACAF Champions League
Last game
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
Toluca 4 - 2 LA Galaxy

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (5.87%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 (8.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result

Los Angeles Galaxy 36.83% (-0.47)
Draw 24.14% (-0.20)
Toluca 39.03% (+0.67)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.78% (+0.50)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.42% (+0.55)
Under 1.5 21.58% (-0.55)
Over 2.5 56.1% (+0.71)
Under 2.5 43.9% (-0.71)
Over 3.5 33.55% (+0.60)
Under 3.5 66.45% (-0.60)
Over 4.5 19.68% (+0.43)
Under 4.5 80.32% (-0.44)

First Half Winner

Los Angeles Galaxy 32.34%
Draw 40.67% (+0.04)
Toluca 27% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Los Angeles Galaxy 50.35% (+0.11)
No Goal 5.61% (-0.21)
Toluca 44.04% (+0.11)

Corners

Over 8 56.06% (-0.08)
Equal 8 11.54% (+0.01)
Under 8 32.4% (+0.08)
Over 9 44.48% (-0.08)
Equal 9 11.59%
Under 9 43.94% (+0.08)
Over 10.5 33.78% (-0.07)
Under 10.5 66.22% (+0.07)

Los Angeles Galaxy Goals

Over 1.5 39.5% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 60.5% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 16.93% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 83.07% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 6.06% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 93.94% (+0.01)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 72.5% (+0.66)
Under 0.5 27.5% (-0.65)
Over 1.5 41.4% (+0.88)
Under 1.5 58.6% (-0.88)
Over 2.5 18.1% (+0.66)
Under 2.5 81.9% (-0.65)
Over 3.5 6.46% (+0.30)
Under 3.5 93.54% (-0.30)

Score analysis

Los Angeles Galaxy 36.83%
Draw 24.14%
Toluca 39.04%
Los Angeles Galaxy
2-1 @ 8.19% (-0.05)
1-0 @ 7.9% (-0.24)
2-0 @ 5.42% (-0.14)
3-1 @ 3.82% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.92% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 2.73% (-0.05)
Other @ 5.85% (-0.02)
Total : 36.83%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.01% (-0.09)
2-2 @ 5.91% (+0.07)
0-0 @ 5.61% (-0.21)
3-3 @ 1.4% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.14%
Toluca
1-2 @ 8.6% (+0.10)
0-1 @ 8.08% (-0.09)
0-2 @ 5.87% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 4.15% (+0.14)
2-3 @ 3.05% (+0.09)
0-3 @ 3.04% (+0.11)
Other @ 6.25% (+0.30)
Total : 39.04%

Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions League
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
4
2
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Nicolás Castro 12' goal
  • Paulinho 43' goal
  • Luan 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseño 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Everardo del Villar 70' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 73' goal
  • Mauricio Isaís 84' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossi 84' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 84' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 85' goal
  • Diego Barbosa 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marco Reus 58'
  • yellowcard Justin Haak 59'
  • goal Gabriel Pec 66'
  • yellowcard Julián Aude 72'
  • goal Marco Reus 77'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Cuevas 80'
  • yellowcard Lucas Sanabria 80'