CONCACAF Champions League
Apr 9, 2026 4.00am
4
2
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Nicolás Castro 12' goal
  • Paulinho 43' goal
  • Luan 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Antonio Briseño 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Everardo del Villar 70' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 73' goal
  • Mauricio Isaís 84' yellowcard
  • Franco Rossi 84' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 84' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 85' goal
  • Diego Barbosa 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marco Reus 58'
  • yellowcard Justin Haak 59'
  • goal Gabriel Pec 66'
  • yellowcard Julián Aude 72'
  • goal Marco Reus 77'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Cuevas 80'
  • yellowcard Lucas Sanabria 80'

Toluca vs Los Angeles Galaxy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions

Los Angeles Galaxy

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 60.79%. A draw had a probability of 21.65% and a win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 17.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%) , while for a Los Angeles Galaxy win it was 0-1 (4.84%).

Result

Toluca 60.79% (+0.01)
Draw 21.65%
Los Angeles Galaxy 17.56%

Both Teams to Score: 

49.67%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.04% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 22.96% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 54.97% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 45.03% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 34.45%
Under 3.5 65.55%
Over 4.5 22.45% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 77.55% (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Toluca 47.94%
Draw 33.25%
Los Angeles Galaxy 18.82%

Team To Score First

Toluca 64.05% (-0.07)
No Goal 6.56%
Los Angeles Galaxy 29.39% (+0.07)

Corners

Over 8 55.69% (-0.06)
Equal 8 11.36% (+0.04)
Under 8 32.94% (+0.01)
Over 9 44.3% (-0.10)
Equal 9 11.39% (+0.04)
Under 9 44.31% (+0.06)
Over 10.5 33.79% (-0.11)
Under 10.5 66.21% (+0.11)

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 56.69% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 43.31% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 30.86% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 69.14% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 14.25% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 85.75% (+0.02)

Los Angeles Galaxy Goals

Over 0.5 50.77% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 49.23% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 21.72% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 78.28% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 7.56% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 92.44% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.5% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 97.5% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Toluca 60.79%
Draw 21.64%
Los Angeles Galaxy 17.55%
Toluca
1-0 @ 11.54% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 10.57% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 9.13%
3-0 @ 6.5% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.82%
3-2 @ 3.19%
Other @ 14.04%
Total : 60.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.26%
0-0 @ 6.56%
2-2 @ 4.51% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.1%
Other @ 0.21% (-0.02)
Total : 21.64%
Los Angeles Galaxy
0-1 @ 4.84%
1-2 @ 4.2%
0-2 @ 2.26% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.65%
2-3 @ 1.62%
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 17.55%