Liga MX Gameweek 16
Apr 23, 2026 2.00am
Estadio de Mazatlán (Mazatlán)

Mazatlan vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mazatlan

All competitions
Last game
Apr 18, 2026 2.00am
Mazatlan 1 - 1 Queretaro
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Josué Ovalle

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Apr 13, 2026 2.00am
Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis
Goals scored
68
Top scorer
Paulinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 61.09%. A draw has a probability of 21.2% and a win for Mazatlan has a probability of 17.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.43%) and 1-2 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.04%) , while for a Mazatlan win it is 1-0 (5.73%).

Result

Mazatlan 17.68%
Draw 21.2%
Toluca 61.09%

Both Teams to Score: 

49.16%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.96%
Under 1.5 23.04%
Over 2.5 53.76%
Under 2.5 46.24%
Over 3.5 31.2%
Under 3.5 68.8%
Over 4.5 19.39%
Under 4.5 80.61%

First Half Winner

Mazatlan 13.55%
Draw 35.68%
Toluca 50.77%

Team To Score First

Mazatlan 21.3%
No Goal 6.28%
Toluca 72.42%

Corners

Over 8 53.61%
Equal 8 11.41%
Under 8 34.98%
Over 9 42.37%
Equal 9 11.24%
Under 9 46.39%
Over 10.5 32.16%
Under 10.5 67.84%

Mazatlan Goals

Over 1.5 20.08%
Under 1.5 79.92%
Over 2.5 5.39%
Under 2.5 94.61%
Over 3.5 1.14%
Under 3.5 98.86%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 83.17%
Under 0.5 16.83%
Over 1.5 56.15%
Under 1.5 43.85%
Over 2.5 30.35%
Under 2.5 69.65%
Over 3.5 13.17%
Under 3.5 86.83%

Score analysis

Mazatlan 17.68%
Draw 21.21%
Toluca 61.09%
Mazatlan
1-0 @ 5.73%
2-1 @ 4.53%
2-0 @ 2.71%
3-1 @ 1.44%
3-2 @ 1.18%
Other @ 1.13%
Total : 17.68%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.04%
0-0 @ 6.28%
2-2 @ 4.21%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 21.21%
Toluca
0-1 @ 11.01%
0-2 @ 10.43%
1-2 @ 9.98%
0-3 @ 7.1%
1-3 @ 6.17%
2-3 @ 3.24%
Other @ 13.16%
Total : 61.09%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Sep 28, 2025 2.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jan 25, 2025 3.00am
2
1
HT : 4 4
FT Estadio de Mazatlan (Mazatlan)
  • Facundo Almada 17' goal
  • Facundo Almada 17' goal
  • Facundo Almada 17' goal
  • Facundo Almada 17' goal
  • Lucas Merolla 58' yellowcard
  • Lucas Merolla 58' yellowcard
  • Lucas Merolla 58' yellowcard
  • Lucas Merolla 58' yellowcard
  • Luis Amarilla 76' goal
  • Luis Amarilla 76' goal
  • Luis Amarilla 76' goal
  • Luis Amarilla 76' goal
  • goal Marcel Ruiz 19'
  • goal Marcel Ruiz 19'
  • goal Marcel Ruiz 19'
  • goal Marcel Ruiz 19'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 40'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 40'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 40'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 40'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 44'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 44'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 44'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 44'
  • yellowcard Helinho 45'+8'
  • yellowcard Helinho 45'+8'
  • yellowcard Helinho 45'+8'
  • yellowcard Helinho 45'+8'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 83'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 83'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 83'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 83'
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jul 18, 2024 4.00am
3
0
HT : 4 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 15' goal
  • Paulinho 15' goal
  • Brian Garcia 45' goal
  • Brian Garcia 45' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 48' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 48' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 77' goal
  • Alexis Vega 77' goal
  • Maximiliano Araujo 87' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Araujo 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Brian Rubio 1'
  • yellowcard Brian Rubio 1'
  • yellowcard Jair Diaz 65'
  • yellowcard Jair Diaz 65'
Liga MX Gameweek 2
Jan 20, 2024 11.00pm
4
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Claudio Baeza 10' yellowcard
  • Brian Garcia 14' yellowcard
  • Valber Huerta 33' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 37' goal
  • Jean Meneses 61' goal
  • Jean Meneses 86' goal
  • Tomas Belmonte 89' yellowcard
  • Tiago Volpi 90'+6' goal
  • goal Andres Montano 16'
  • yellowcard Bryan Colula 30'
  • yellowcard Jefferson Intriago 44'
Liga MX Gameweek 17
Nov 11, 2023 1.06am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Mazatlan (Mazatlan)
  • Jefferson Intriago 68' goal
  • Jefferson Intriago 68' goal
  • yellowcard Andres Mosquera 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Andres Mosquera 90'+4'
Liga MX Gameweek 11
Mar 12, 2023 6.00pm
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Carlos Gonzalez 25' goal
  • Maximiliano Araujo 48' goal
  • Edgar Lopez 45'+5' goal
  • Camilo Sanvezzo 83' goal
  • goal Nicolas Benedetti 38'